3430 Waters Mill Dr · Alpharetta, GA 30022

$750,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,755 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1987 0.41 ac lot $272/sqft · 18% above area Est $977k · 23% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning 6-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in highly sought-after Johns Creek, where timeless charm meets everyday functionality. From the moment you arrive, the show-stopping curb appeal sets the tone for what's inside-warm, inviting, and thoughtfully designed for both living and entertaining. This home has been lovingly cared for and filled with years of cherished memories, having raised a family who truly adored every space. Inside, you'll find generous living areas, abundant natural light, and room for everyone to spread out. The finished basement offers incredible versatility-perfect for a media room, play space, home gym, or guest retreat. Several recent upgrades, including a newer HVAC system, offering added comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for the next owner. Thoughtful improvements throughout the home enhance both functionality and long-term value. Step outside to your expansive covered patios, an ideal setting for relaxing evenings, weekend gatherings, and year-round enjoyment. Convenience is unmatched with this home's prime location within the neighborhood-just a short walk to community amenities and all three school bus stops. Beyond the neighborhood, you're minutes from the top-rated schools, Avalon, downtown Alpharetta, the Greenway Trail, and GA-400, making commuting to downtown Atlanta a breeze. This is more than just a house-it's a place to create your next chapter and fall in love with where you live.

Key facts

• Covered patios
• Community amenities
• Finished basement

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• COVERED PATIOS
• PRIME LOCATION
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $405k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (56.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (56.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.3% in Alpharetta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#32 in GA, #4,064 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($705k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $333k; list at $750k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,586 (56.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.16%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 19.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $977,478
• List price: $750,000
• Delta: -23.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3335 Waters Mill Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,646 (-4%)	7mo	$560,000	$212	76
10610 Timberstone Rd	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,888 (+5%)	9mo	$566,000	$196	74
3505 Waters Cove Way	0.33mi	4/3.5	2,602 (-6%)	3mo	$600,000	$231	72
305 Kimball Trce	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,870 (+4%)	4mo	$680,000	$237	57
10545 Virginia Pine Ln	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,480 (-10%)	11mo	$455,000	$183	52
3395 New Heritage Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,856 (+4%)	4mo	$770,000	$270	51
415 Wood Trace Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,464 (-11%)	7mo	$573,000	$233	49
275 Wood Shoals Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,538 (-8%)	17mo	$670,000	$264	48
3555 Waters Cove Way	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,442 (-11%)	21mo	$665,000	$272	39
3585 Legacy Trce	0.66mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,086 (+12%)	12mo	$656,500	$213	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-255,860
• Equity at exit: $111,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.01×
• Total profit: $-421,526
• Equity at exit: $64,846

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30022

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 19.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $-1,953

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,757

Max offer price $405,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,528	-5% $-1,740	+0% $-1,953	+5% $-2,165	+10% $-2,377
Rent	-10% $-2,212	-5% $-2,082	+0% $-1,953	+5% $-1,823	+10% $-1,693
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,575	-0.5pp $-1,762	base $-1,953	+0.5pp $-2,147	+1.0pp $-2,345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Starboard Way Alpharetta, GA	4.0	2.5	2200	$3,000	$1.36	16d	1	0.21mi
3470 Waters Cove Way Alpharetta, GA	3.0	2.5	2110	$3,600	$1.71	44d	1	0.29mi
10005 Lauren Hall Ct Alpharetta, GA	4.0	2.5	2468	$3,100	$1.26	44d	1	0.67mi
10630 Colony Glen Dr Johns Creek, GA	3.0	2.5	2010	$2,400	$1.19	19d	1	0.90mi
3705 Patterstone Dr Johns Creek, GA	3.0	2.5	2446	$2,925	$1.20	6d	1	0.99mi
655 S Preston Ct Johns Creek, GA	5.0	2.5	2060	$3,123	$1.52	6d	1	1.34mi
10315 Crescent Ridge Dr Roswell, GA	5.0	4.5	3406	$3,500	$1.03	44d	1	1.37mi
9800 Foxworth Dr Johns Creek, GA	5.0	4.5	3696	$7,500	$2.03	44d	1	1.41mi
9858 Talisman Dr Johns Creek, GA	5.0	4.0	3600	$4,845	$1.35	19d	1	1.45mi
10730 Pinewalk Forest Cir Alpharetta, GA	4.0	3.5	2234	$3,200	$1.43	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $750,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $750,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $750,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $750,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $750,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $750,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $750,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $750,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $750,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $750,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $750,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $750,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-04-15
    listed $750,000 New 1455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1520 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 6-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in highly sought-after Johns Creek, where timeless charm meets everyday functionality. From the moment you arrive, the show-stopping curb appeal sets the tone for what’s inside—warm, inviting, and thoughtfully designed for both living and entertaining. This home has been lovingly cared for and filled with years of cherished memories, having raised a family who truly adored every space. Inside, you’ll find generous living areas, abundant natural light, and room for everyone to spread out. The finished basement offers incredible versatility—perfect for a media room, play space, home gym, or guest retreat. Several recent upgrades, including a newer HVAC system, offering added comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for the next owner. Thoughtful improvements throughout the home enhance both functionality and long-term value Step outside to your expansive covered patios, an ideal setting for relaxing evenings, weekend gatherings, and year-round enjoyment. Convenience is unmatched with this home’s prime location within the neighborhood—just a short walk to community amenities and all three school bus stops. Beyond the neighborhood, you’re minutes from the top-rated schools, Avalon, downtown Alpharetta, the Greenway Trail, and GA-400, making commuting to downtown Atlanta a breeze. This is more than just a house—it’s a place to create your next chapter and fall in love with where you live.

14. 2026-04-15
    listed $750,000 Active 1520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1520 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 6-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in highly sought-after Johns Creek, where timeless charm meets everyday functionality. From the moment you arrive, the show-stopping curb appeal sets the tone for what’s inside—warm, inviting, and thoughtfully designed for both living and entertaining. This home has been lovingly cared for and filled with years of cherished memories, having raised a family who truly adored every space. Inside, you’ll find generous living areas, abundant natural light, and room for everyone to spread out. The finished basement offers incredible versatility—perfect for a media room, play space, home gym, or guest retreat. Several recent upgrades, including a newer HVAC system, offering added comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for the next owner. Thoughtful improvements throughout the home enhance both functionality and long-term value Step outside to your expansive covered patios, an ideal setting for relaxing evenings, weekend gatherings, and year-round enjoyment. Convenience is unmatched with this home’s prime location within the neighborhood—just a short walk to community amenities and all three school bus stops. Beyond the neighborhood, you’re minutes from the top-rated schools, Avalon, downtown Alpharetta, the Greenway Trail, and GA-400, making commuting to downtown Atlanta a breeze. This is more than just a house—it’s a place to create your next chapter and fall in love with where you live.

15. 2026-03-27
    historical
16. 2026-03-27
    historical
17. 2026-03-13
    status Back On Market
18. 2026-03-13
    status Active
19. 2026-03-13
    status Pending
20. 2026-03-06
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2026-03-06
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2026-02-04
    price $768,000
23. 2026-02-04
    price $768,000
24. 2025-11-10
    price $783,000
25. 2025-11-10
    price $783,000
26. 2025-08-28
    listed $798,000 Active
27. 2025-08-27
    historical
28. 2025-08-27
    listed $798,000 New
29. 2015-02-28
    price $333,000
30. 2013-01-03
    soldstatus $333,000
31. 2013-01-02
    price $333,000
32. 2012-12-27
    historical
33. 2012-12-20
    soldstatus $333,000 Sold
34. 2012-12-20
    price $335,000
35. 2012-12-20
    soldstatus $333,000 Sold
36. 2012-12-11
    status Pending
37. 2012-12-04
    historical
38. 2012-12-04
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence
39. 2012-11-30
    price $335,000
40. 2012-11-26
    listed $335,000 Active
41. 2012-11-26
    listed $335,000 New
42. 2012-11-13
    historical
43. 2012-07-27
    price $360,000
44. 2012-06-15
    price $375,000
45. 2012-05-16
    listed $400,000 New
46. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus $239,000
47. 1999-07-19
    soldstatus $238,000
48. 1994-05-31
    soldstatus $180,000
49. 1987-07-17
    soldstatus $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,900 · $575/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,023/yr (+$335/mo · 139.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,154
• − Management: −$3,154
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable loss: −$38,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,142
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Alpharetta

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #4064

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpharetta, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 62,931
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 64,546
• Household income: $153,294
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1556.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Asian 21% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.42%
• Current HPI: 273.0204
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.04%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+369.0% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $750,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $750,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-03-13 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — FMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $768,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $768,000 FMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $783,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $783,000 FMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $798,000 FMLS
• 2025-08-27 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $798,000 GAMLS
• 2015-02-28 Price Changed $333,000 GAMLS
• 2013-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $333,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-02 Price Changed $333,000 FMLS
• 2012-12-27 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2012-12-20 Sold (MLS) $333,000 GAMLS
• 2012-12-20 Sold (MLS) $333,000 FMLS
• 2012-12-20 Price Changed $335,000 FMLS
• 2012-12-11 Pending — FMLS
• 2012-12-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-12-04 Contingent — FMLS
• 2012-11-30 Price Changed $335,000 GAMLS
• 2012-11-26 Listed $335,000 FMLS
• 2012-11-26 Listed $335,000 GAMLS
• 2012-11-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-07-27 Price Changed $360,000 GAMLS
• 2012-06-15 Price Changed $375,000 GAMLS
• 2012-05-16 Listed $400,000 GAMLS
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $239,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,877 · +23.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.