4925 Porky Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 430 Days on market

Built 1985 $160/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Pine Island Cove, a Gulf access 55+ community that offers an array of activities and amenities for island lifestyle at its best! This home is located directly across the street from the clubhouse and pool so you can easily access the fun in the sun living without the need for a car or golfcart, just walk a few steps and you're swimming in the beautiful saltwater pool or soothing your stresses away in the bubbling hot tub. The home has a spacious open floor plan with 3 walk in closets, good sized entry hall closet and a roomy shed for plenty of storage space. New kitchen with stone counter tops, wall oven, shaker style cabinets and stainless appliances. Wood style vinyl plank floo

Key facts

• Clubhouse and pool
• Saltwater pool
• Bubbling hot tub

Tags

• GULF ACCESS COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE AND POOL
• SALTWATER POOL
• BUBBLING HOT TUB
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On-site management; Part of a 325-unit community; Non-gated community with street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed conditionally (maximum 2, call for details)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee includes internet, recreation facilities, road maintenance, and street lights; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, bocce court, pickleball, boat dock, boat ramp, barbecue and picnic areas, dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; Paved; Two spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public or private sewer available; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Entry level 1; North-facing
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Lanai / screened porch; Patio; Porch; Fruit trees; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Disposal; Kitchen island
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Furnished; Dual sinks; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Shower only with separate shower; Cable TV; High speed internet; Window treatments; Single hung and sliding windows with impact glass and shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 430 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $134k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 430 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.90%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $38,521
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $119,525
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,320/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $1,028

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,198

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,124	-5% $1,076	+0% $1,028	+5% $981	+10% $933
Rent	-10% $752	-5% $890	+0% $1,028	+5% $1,167	+10% $1,305
Rate	-1.0pp $1,114	-0.5pp $1,071	base $1,028	+0.5pp $985	+1.0pp $940

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4807 Flamingo Dr Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$3,500	$2.49	2d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $169,000 Pending 430 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 430 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 429 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 427 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 423 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 421 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,000 Active 416 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,000 Active 415 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,000 Active 414 DOM
10. 2026-01-13
    price $169,000
11. 2025-04-12
    listed $190,000 Active
12. 2025-03-20
    historical
13. 2025-03-20
    historical
14. 2024-10-29
    price $190,000
15. 2024-10-29
    price $190,000
16. 2024-09-07
    listed $249,000 Active
17. 2024-07-10
    price $249,900
18. 2024-03-07
    listed $279,000 Active
19. 2016-11-23
    price $134,000
20. 2016-10-31
    soldstatus $134,000
21. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus $134,000 Sold
22. 2016-10-28
    price $138,999
23. 2016-08-20
    status Pending
24. 2016-07-13
    price $138,999
25. 2016-06-10
    status Active
26. 2016-06-01
    status Pending
27. 2016-05-24
    price $139,000
28. 2016-05-03
    price $145,900
29. 2016-04-20
    listed $146,000 Active
30. 2013-02-05
    soldstatus $95,000
31. 2013-01-29
    soldstatus $95,000
32. 2013-01-08
    price $110,000
33. 1997-05-27
    soldstatus $49,000
34. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus $12,500
35. 1981-12-01
    soldstatus $500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,320
• − Insurance: −$5,964
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $10,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,567
• After-tax cash flow: $9,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-66.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $169,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-12 Listed $190,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $190,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-07 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Price Changed $249,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-07 Listed $279,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-11-23 Price Changed $134,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-28 Price Changed $138,999 FORTMLS
• 2016-10-28 Sold (MLS) $134,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-08-20 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2016-07-13 Price Changed $138,999 FORTMLS
• 2016-06-10 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2016-06-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2016-05-24 Price Changed $139,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-05-03 Price Changed $145,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-04-20 Listed $146,000 FORTMLS
• 2013-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-29 Sold (MLS) $95,000 FORTMLS
• 2013-01-08 Price Changed $110,000 FORTMLS
• 1997-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 1981-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,320 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.