Flora Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$351,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,815 sqft · SingleFamily · 287 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional craftsmanship combines with genuine comforts in The Flora floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Manvel. Open-concept family and dining spaces showcase the interior design refinements that grant your home exquisite style and livability. The kitchen creates an enhanced culinary atmosphere with open sight lines extending across the gathering spaces and out onto the covered porch. The Owner's Retreat and Owner's Bath feature an oversized walk-in closet to make the start of each day superb. Growing decorative styles will have a wonderful place to call their own in the beautiful junior bedrooms. Send the David Weekley Homes at Meridiana Team a message to begin your #LivingWeekley adventure with this new home in Manvel, Texas.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Flora floor plan
• Junior bedrooms

Tags

• FLORA FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY SPACES
• GATHERING SPACES
• COVERED PORCH
• OVERSIZED WALK IN CLOSET
• JUNIOR BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $351,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $414,672.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $352k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-912 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1643 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,321 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.42%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $414,672
• List price: $351,990
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5235 Palo Verde Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+1%)	1mo	$325,000	$177	76
10107 Palm Springs Pl	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+3%)	0mo	$330,000	$177	73
10115 Palm Springs Pl	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$186	71
10127 Palm Springs Pl	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+4%)	2mo	$350,000	$186	69
10102 Palm Springs Pl	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+5%)	3mo	$347,990	$183	67
5222 Sage Hills Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+3%)	3mo	$320,000	$171	67
10131 Palm Springs Pl	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+5%)	3mo	$365,000	$192	66
5215 Getty Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+3%)	2mo	$361,000	$193	64
5251 Palo Verde Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+5%)	2mo	$335,000	$175	63
5227 Palo Verde Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$164	63
5239 Palo Verde Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+5%)	3mo	$355,490	$186	63
5210 Getty Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,753 (-3%)	3mo	$346,990	$198	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-125,806
• Equity at exit: $61,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-186,514
• Equity at exit: $35,853

Cash invested: $116,108 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 167 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $386,900 ($204/sqft)
• Median days on market: 132 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1643
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,175
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$518 /mo · $6,220/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,627

Max offer price $282,724

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-625	-5% $-769	+0% $-912	+5% $-1,055	+10% $-1,198
Rent	-10% $-1,107	-5% $-1,010	+0% $-912	+5% $-814	+10% $-716
Rate	-1.0pp $-703	-0.5pp $-806	base $-912	+0.5pp $-1,019	+1.0pp $-1,129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,668
• Closing costs: $12,440
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5602 Caracara St Manvel, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,200	$1.16	10d	1	0.24mi
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	94d	1	0.29mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	98d	1	0.32mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	120d	1	0.44mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	70d	1	0.47mi
4143 Champlain Way Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	38d	1	1.43mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	139d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $351,990 Active 287 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $351,990 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $351,990 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $351,990 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $351,990 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $351,990 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $351,990 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $351,990 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $351,990 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $351,990 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $351,990 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $351,990 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $351,990 Active 275 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $351,990 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $351,990 Active 268 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $351,990 Active 267 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $351,990 Active 265 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $356,990 Active 263 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $356,990 Active 261 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $356,990 Active 260 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $356,990 Active 259 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $356,990 Active 258 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $356,990 Active 257 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $356,990 Active 256 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $356,990 Active 255 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $356,990 Active 254 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $356,990 Active 253 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $356,990 Active 252 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $356,990 Active 251 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    price $356,990 Active 250 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $351,990 Active 250 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $351,990 Active 249 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $351,990 Active 248 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $351,990 Active 247 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $351,990 Active 246 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $351,990 Active 245 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $351,990 Active 244 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $351,990 Active 243 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $351,990 Active 242 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $351,990 Active 241 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $351,990 Active 240 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $351,990 Active 238 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $351,990 Active 237 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $351,990 Active 236 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $351,990 Active 235 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $351,990 Active 232 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $351,990 Active 230 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $351,990 Active 229 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $351,990 Active 227 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $351,990 Active 225 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,228
• − Property taxes: −$6,220
• − Insurance: −$2,073
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,374
• − Management: −$2,374
• − Depreciation: −$12,063
• Taxable loss: −$18,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,075–$27,225 screening

The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained bathrooms. It has a good exterior and hardwood flooring, making it a good candidate for cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding and trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring in the bedrooms — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value to the home. ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $351,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $357,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $349,990 Zillow