Bay Leaf Plan · Tickfaw, LA 70466

$234,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Bay Leaf, a beautifully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage across 1,581 square feet of comfortable, thoughtfully planned living space. Designed for modern living, this open-concept floor plan is perfect for families, entertainers, first-time buyers, and anyone searching for a functional and stylish home in Rivers Edge, Tickfaw, La. Step inside from the covered front porch into a welcoming foyer with convenient access to the laundry room. The Bay Leaf opens into a bright, flowing layout where the kitchen, dining, and living room come together seamlessly, creating the ideal space for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. The modern kitchen features a spacious island overlooking the living area, a walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining room. Homebuyers will love the stainless steel appliances, including a stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, adding durability, style, and value. The primary bedroom suite, located privately toward the rear of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom with dual-sink vanity and linen storage. Three additional secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned throughout the home, providing flexibility for children's rooms, guest space, home office needs, or hobby areas, all supported by a conveniently located second full bathroom

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Modern kitchen
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $234,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $251,035.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#203 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Park Magnet (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #597 of 646 statewide, top 95%, 519 students, 88% FRL); Lucille Nesom Memorial (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #534 of 646 statewide, top 83%, 549 students, 83% FRL); Independence High Magnet (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #224 of 265 statewide, top 86%, 570 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,510 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,035
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -6.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10172 Pearl Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-2%)	1mo	$250,000	$161	96
10188 Pearl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-2%)	1mo	$247,658	$159	92
10180 Pearl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-2%)	4mo	$247,900	$159	89
10215 Crystal Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-2%)	2mo	$249,900	$161	88
10204 Crystal Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-2%)	2mo	$237,900	$153	88
10180 Pearl Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-2%)	4mo	$247,900	$159	84
10131 Crystal Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,555 (-2%)	9mo	$259,900	$167	83
10191 Crystal Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,562 (-1%)	10mo	$253,900	$163	82
10149 Crystal Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-15%)	3mo	$234,900	$175	68
10178 Crystal Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,349 (-15%)	9mo	$238,900	$177	56
10196 Crystal Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,349 (-15%)	8mo	$229,900	$170	56
10125 Crystal Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-15%)	7mo	$243,795	$182	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $19,194
• Equity at exit: $122,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $85,613
• Equity at exit: $195,487

Cash invested: $70,290 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70466

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,316
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,766/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $206,349

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-222	+0% $-309	+5% $-396	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-380	+0% $-309	+5% $-238	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-245	base $-309	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,759
• Closing costs: $7,531
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $234,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,900 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $234,900 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,900 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-01-15
    listed $234,900 Active 1495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1495 chars)

    Welcome to The Bay Leaf, a beautifully designed single-story new construction home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage across 1,581 square feet of comfortable, thoughtfully planned living space. Designed for modern living, this open-concept floor plan is perfect for families, entertainers, first-time buyers, and anyone searching for a functional and stylish home in Rivers Edge, Tickfaw, La. Step inside from the covered front porch into a welcoming foyer with convenient access to the laundry room. The Bay Leaf opens into a bright, flowing layout where the kitchen, dining, and living room come together seamlessly, creating the ideal space for everyday living and gathering with friends and family. The modern kitchen features a spacious island overlooking the living area, a walk-in pantry, and easy access to the dining room. Homebuyers will love the stainless steel appliances, including a stove, microwave hood, and dishwasher, paired with beautiful 3 cm granite countertops throughout, adding durability, style, and value. The primary bedroom suite, located privately toward the rear of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom with dual-sink vanity and linen storage. Three additional secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned throughout the home, providing flexibility for children's rooms, guest space, home office needs, or hobby areas, all supported by a conveniently located second full bathroom

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,062
• − Property taxes: −$3,766
• − Insurance: −$1,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$7,303
• Taxable loss: −$8,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,966
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Tickfaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #15825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,815

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 126.0016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $234,900 Zillow