3102 48th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1958 7,950 sqft lot Est $195k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 3102 48th Street! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 1,433 square feet of potential with solid bones. Situated on a spacious lot featuring great curb appeal landscaping, a large backyard with dog run and storage unit. Full fence replaced in 2021. Two large security lights on east and west sides. The property features original hardwood flooring throughout much of the home, new windows installed 2026 in two bedrooms. RO unit and new dishwasher remain. HVAC appx 10 yrs old, serviced late 2025. Water Heater appx 3 yrs old The home shows with need of heavy cosmetic rehab due to deferred maintenance, but it is solid, with a great floor plan and ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Spacious lot
• Dog run

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DOG RUN
• STORAGE UNIT
• FULL FENCE REPLACED
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax: $1,489

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Paved road access
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area above grade: 1,433
• Exterior features: Private yard; Outdoor storage; Fenced yard with privacy; Corner lot; Paved city street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Central air conditioning; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Interior storage
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wheelock El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 323 students, 92% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 60% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 44th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+2%)	13mo	$199,000	$136	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,431
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,238
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3019 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,400	$1.08	21d	1	0.02mi
3006 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,150	$1.13	21d	1	0.09mi
3006 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1047	$995	$0.95	21d	1	0.14mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	21d	1	0.21mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	21d	1	0.28mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	21d	1	0.32mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	43d	1	0.32mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	0.33mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	43d	1	0.38mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	13d	25	0.39mi
2823 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,825	$1.06	43d	1	0.45mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	0.47mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	43d	1	0.49mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	43d	1	0.49mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	43d	1	0.50mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	43d	1	0.50mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	43d	1	0.55mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	21d	1	0.56mi
3505 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1686	$1,550	$0.92	43d	1	0.56mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.58mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	13d	1	0.60mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	43d	1	0.60mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	13d	1	0.60mi
3126 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	43d	1	0.63mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	43d	1	0.63mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	43d	1	0.63mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	13d	1	0.65mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	21d	1	0.67mi
3114 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	43d	1	0.68mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	21d	1	0.69mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	13d	23	0.70mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	21d	1	0.72mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	21d	1	0.74mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	43d	1	0.74mi
5018 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1245	$1,275	$1.02	13d	1	0.74mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	43d	1	0.74mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	43d	1	0.76mi
5202 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,022	$0.94	21d	1	0.76mi
2315 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	21d	1	0.77mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2008-06-05
   soldstatus
4. 1985-12-01
   soldstatus
5. 1984-06-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $633
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2008-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,703 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.