1634 Spring Hill Rd · Lumberton, MS 39455

$40,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1969 $27/sqft · 87% below area ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FORECLOSURE! AS-IS NO DISCLOSURE! Come see this 3 bedroom 1 bath gem in Pearl River County! This country oasis is sure to please with over an acre to roam.

Key facts

• Over an acre
• Built 1969
• Listed 90 days

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 4.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Poplarville Separate School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #52 of 130 in MS (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($280 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,070 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.99%
• DSCR: 4.25
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,322
• List price: $40,500
• Delta: -86.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $58,680
• Equity at exit: $28,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.6%
• Equity multiple: 13.14×
• Total profit: $137,715
• Equity at exit: $55,041

Cash invested: $11,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39455

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 300
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$212
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $895/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $40,500

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,125
• Closing costs: $1,215
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $40,500 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,500 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,500 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,500 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,500 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $40,500 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   status $40,500 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-05-02
   price $40,500 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   FORECLOSURE! AS-IS NO DISCLOSURE! Come see this 3 bedroom 1 bath gem in Pearl River County! This country oasis is sure to please with over an acre to roam.

9. 2026-04-07
   price $45,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   FORECLOSURE! AS-IS NO DISCLOSURE! Come see this 3 bedroom 1 bath gem in Pearl River County! This country oasis is sure to please with over an acre to roam.

10. 2026-03-06
    listed $50,000 Active 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    FORECLOSURE! AS-IS NO DISCLOSURE! Come see this 3 bedroom 1 bath gem in Pearl River County! This country oasis is sure to please with over an acre to roam.

11. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Don't miss this cute country home! It is situated on 1.73 ac in Poplarville School District. It is just waiting for someone to give it a little TLC and settle right in.

12. 2022-04-18
    soldstatus
13. 2022-03-06
    listed $74,900 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Don't miss this cute country home! It is situated on 1.73 ac in Poplarville School District. It is just waiting for someone to give it a little TLC and settle right in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,269
• − Property taxes: −$895
• − Insurance: −$202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$1,178
• Taxable income: $8,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,952
• After-tax cash flow: $6,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplarville Separate School District
• NCES district ID: 2803720
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 30.1/100
• National rank: #6339
• State rank: #52 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #8568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,030
• Population (ZIP): 9,030

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 15% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.23%
• Current HPI: 202.5728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-45.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $40,500 HAAR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $45,000 HAAR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $50,000 HAAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2022-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-06 Listed $74,900 HAAR

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $895 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.