5230 Panola Mill Dr · Stonecrest, GA 30038

$249,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1996 9,147 sqft lot $85/sqft · 28% below area Est $348k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * INVESTOR SPECIAL * * Incredible opportunity in a well-established and evolving area of Lithonia. This home features a highly desirable floor plan consistent with recently renovated properties nearby, offering strong upside potential. Conveniently located near I-20 and I-285, the area continues to benefit from ongoing infrastructure improvements and expanding connectivity, contributing to long-term growth and increasing demand. While the property requires renovation and does not include a basement, it offers a spacious layout and solid structure ready for transformation. A great opportunity to customize, build equity, and maximize value. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers lookin

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Two-story home; Brick construction with brick front; Composition roof; Resale condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: No common walls

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Bay window(s); Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Stonecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Flat Rock Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 996 students, 100% FRL); Lithonia Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #411 of 470 statewide, top 87%, 1,214 students, 100% FRL); Lithonia High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 1,483 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dekalb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $250k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,811 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,861
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -28.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5211 Panola Mill Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,792 (-5%)	7mo	$310,000	$111	83
5206 Panola Mill Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	3,024 (+2%)	12mo	$239,900	$79	83
4923 Panola Mill Dr	0.24mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,066 (+4%)	2mo	$352,000	$115	74
5020 Panola Mill Dr	0.47mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,936 (-0%)	3mo	$369,900	$126	70
5147 Winding Glen Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,790 (-5%)	7mo	$330,000	$118	69
3250 Panola Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	3,031 (+3%)	22mo	$360,000	$119	69
5001 Panola Mill Dr	0.41mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,806 (-5%)	1mo	$346,000	$123	63
3272 Christian Springs Dr	0.41mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,999 (+2%)	12mo	$287,000	$96	59
3198 Miller Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,725 (-8%)	8mo	$324,900	$119	51
5125 Winding Glen Dr	0.36mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,652 (-10%)	12mo	$334,000	$126	49
3292 Arnhem Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,570 (-13%)	21mo	$259,000	$101	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,011
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,157
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30038

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,042/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2993 Havenwood Way Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	2655	$2,300	$0.87	43d	1	0.37mi
5388 Winding Glen Dr Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,230	$0.99	43d	1	0.39mi
4936 Longview Run Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	2238	$2,900	$1.30	43d	1	1.22mi
2204 Fairington Club Dr Unit 2204 Stonecrest, GA	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,600	$0.80	5d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $249,900 748-char remark
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $269,900 Active 748-char remark
16. 1990-11-01
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,042
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$694
• After-tax cash flow: $1,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stonecrest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stonecrest, GA
• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• City population: 106,165
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 43,776
• Household income: $73,694
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 4% Asian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.98%
• Current HPI: 192.8328
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+117.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $249,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $269,900 FMLS
• 1990-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,042 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.