21100 State St #70 · San Jacinto, CA 92583

$78,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1979 $98/sqft · 38% below area Est $126k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 2 bedroom , 2 bathroom home that has been renovated . New kitchen sink with garbage disposal and new countertop. Bathrooms have new toilets and sinks. Rooms have new closet doors. New seamless flooring throughout the whole Has very large wrap around deck. Home sit on a large lot with driveway that room for 2 large cars plus storage shed. In the a very upscale 55+ community . Across the street from clubhouse. Very nice swimming pool and activities in the community. Great for a walk or enjoyment of natural settings.

Key facts

• Renovated
• New toilets
• New sinks

Tags

• RENOVATED
• NEW KITCHEN SINK
• NEW COUNTERTOP
• NEW TOILETS
• NEW SINKS
• NEW CLOSET DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,980 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.09%
• DSCR: 3.58
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,750
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -37.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21100 State St #107	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (-2%)	15mo	$61,340	$78	80
21100 State St #4	0.14mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	23mo	$50,000	$60	62
842 Elm Dr	0.75mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	19mo	$125,000	$156	46
814 Grove Ave	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (0%)	19mo	$145,000	$181	43
1365 Sierra Dr	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	824 (+3%)	12mo	$112,000	$136	42
1427 Sierra Dr	0.65mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-12%)	3mo	$145,000	$207	37
1381 Sierra Dr	0.72mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-12%)	1mo	$78,000	$111	36
1423 Sierra Dr	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-6%)	22mo	$129,900	$173	31
833 Grove Ave	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-12%)	13mo	$112,000	$160	27
1367 Western Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	680 (-15%)	17mo	$125,000	$184	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $53,922
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $130,518
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92583

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $200/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $1,057

Break-even live

Break-even rent $580

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1397 Bushy Tail Trl San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	937	$1,795	$1.92	43d	1	0.54mi
1344 Sierra Seneca Dr San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	4d	1	0.60mi
1318 Bushy Tail Trl San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	24d	1	0.62mi
1453 Prospect Dr #82 San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	43d	1	0.63mi
1382 Western Dr San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,650	$2.36	43d	1	0.73mi
1311 Heritage Ranch Rd San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,750	$1.94	43d	1	0.78mi
918 Acorn Dr San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,600	$2.67	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $78,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $78,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Very nice 2 bedroom , 2 bathroom home that has been renovated . New kitchen sink with garbage disposal and new countertop. Bathrooms have new toilets and sinks. Rooms have new closet doors. New seamless flooring throughout the whole Has very large wrap around deck. Home sit on a large lot with driveway that room for 2 large cars plus storage shed. In the a very upscale 55+ community . Across the street from clubhouse. Very nice swimming pool and activities in the community. Great for a walk or enjoyment of natural settings.

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $95,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Very nice 2 bedroom , 2 bathroom home that has been renovated . New kitchen sink with garbage disposal and new countertop. Bathrooms have new toilets and sinks. Rooms have new closet doors. New seamless flooring throughout the whole Has very large wrap around deck. Home sit on a large lot with driveway that room for 2 large cars plus storage shed. In the a very upscale 55+ community . Across the street from clubhouse. Very nice swimming pool and activities in the community. Great for a walk or enjoyment of natural settings.

17. 2011-06-20
    historical
18. 2011-01-10
    price $15,000
19. 2010-09-07
    status Active
20. 2010-08-23
    historical
21. 2010-07-09
    price $22,500
22. 2010-04-24
    price $28,000
23. 2010-02-23
    listed $35,000 Active
24. 2010-02-20
    historical
25. 2009-12-30
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $200 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 196.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$200
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $12,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,906
• After-tax cash flow: $9,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,778
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,778
• Household income: $68,351
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 26% Two or more races 23% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 40% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.15%
• Current HPI: 407.8584
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+122.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $78,000 TheMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $95,000 TheMLS
• 2011-06-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-01-10 Price Changed $15,000 CRMLS
• 2010-09-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2010-08-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-07-09 Price Changed $22,500 CRMLS
• 2010-04-24 Price Changed $28,000 CRMLS
• 2010-02-23 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
• 2010-02-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-12-30 Listed $35,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $200 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.