9949 Greentree Ln · West Tawakoni, TX 75169

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1996 0.26 ac lot Est $150k · 40% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just minutes from beautiful Lake Tawakoni, this charming home offers the perfect opportunity for full-time living or a relaxing weekend getaway. The functional open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen and living area, creating a warm and inviting space for family and friends. Both the primary and guest bedrooms feature private en suite bathrooms, providing comfort and convenience for owners and guests alike. Start your mornings on the oversized front porch with a cup of coffee and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. HOA amenities include access to a private park, boat launch, and clubhouse, making it easy to embrace the lake lifestyle. Schedule your showing today and discover all th

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Clubhouse
• Boat launch

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATHROOMS
• OVERSIZED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE PARK
• BOAT LAUNCH
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Brinwood Shores); Annual association fee of $200; Association dues include full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport with 2 covered spaces
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; Septic system; All-weather road access; Located outside city limits
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1996
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Built-in cabinets; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath; Second bedroom with ensuite bath
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; One living area; One dining area; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.34%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,632
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3183 Timberwild	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	896 (0%)	21mo	$150,000	$167	72
3136 Post Oak Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+3%)	19mo	$115,000	$124	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $25,971
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $74,772
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $257/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $663	+0% $637	+5% $612	+10% $586
Rent	-10% $519	-5% $578	+0% $637	+5% $696	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $682	-0.5pp $660	base $637	+0.5pp $614	+1.0pp $590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10481 Private Road 3709 #11 Wills Point, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	0d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $90,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $257 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,390/yr (+$116/mo · 540.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$257
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $6,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $100,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $257 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.