Kitson Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$215,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 191 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $215,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,895.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1412 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,071 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,895
• List price: $215,990
• Delta: -17.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16249 Bergara Bend Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	2mo	$208,990	$144	98
16238 Bergara Bend Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	2mo	$210,990	$145	84
16270 Bergara Bend Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$194,990	$133	83
16261 Bergara Bend Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$191,990	$131	83
16554 Timberwolf Trl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+8%)	2mo	$248,990	$158	71
16503 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	2mo	$213,990	$141	70
21710 Piper Betel Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-2%)	1mo	$244,990	$173	68
16257 Bergara Bend Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$162,991	$124	68
16214 Bergara Bend Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	2mo	$162,991	$124	68
14278 Moonflower Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+3%)	2mo	$263,590	$177	63
16558 Timberwolf Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+13%)	2mo	$231,890	$142	63
14322 Moonflower Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+8%)	1mo	$264,990	$168	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-64,062
• Equity at exit: $38,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-97,598
• Equity at exit: $22,557

Cash invested: $73,051 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 104 active · 72 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $242,562 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1412
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,368
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,913/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $223,461

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-169	+0% $-259	+5% $-349	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-336	+0% $-259	+5% $-181	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-192	base $-259	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,224
• Closing costs: $7,827
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21501 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	31d	1	0.43mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	120d	1	0.49mi
15127 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.71mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	61d	1	0.72mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,647	$0.92	20d	60	0.97mi
15815 Kropik Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,495	$1.01	45d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $215,990 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $215,990 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $215,990 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $215,990 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $215,990 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $215,990 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $215,990 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $215,990 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $215,990 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $215,990 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $215,990 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $215,990 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $215,990 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $213,990 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $213,990 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $213,990 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $211,990 Active 168 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $211,990 Active 167 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $211,990 Active 166 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $211,990 Active 165 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $211,990 Active 164 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $211,990 Active 163 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $211,990 Active 162 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $211,990 Active 161 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $211,990 Active 160 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $211,990 Active 159 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $211,990 Active 158 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $211,990 Active 157 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $211,990 Active 156 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    price $211,990 Active 155 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $208,990 Active 155 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $208,990 Active 154 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $208,990 Active 153 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $208,990 Active 152 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $208,990 Active 151 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $208,990 Active 150 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $208,990 Active 149 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    price $208,990 Active 148 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $207,990 Active 148 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $207,990 Active 147 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $207,990 Active 146 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $207,990 Active 145 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $207,990 Active 143 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $207,990 Active 142 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $207,990 Active 141 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $206,990 Active 140 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $206,990 Active 137 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $206,990 Active 136 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $206,990 Active 135 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $206,990 Active 134 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,614
• − Property taxes: −$3,913
• − Insurance: −$1,304
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$7,590
• Taxable loss: −$7,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,255–$21,765 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with minor cosmetic updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters improve property maintenance and reduce maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $233,990 Zillow