9137 Evelyn Ave · California City, CA 93505

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2005 7,405 sqft lot $220/sqft · at area comps Est $321k · at est. ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable neighborhood. This inviting property features a bright and open floor plan, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the fresh feel of brand-new carpet, adding comfort and style. Situated just minutes from local schools, parks, and shopping, this home combines convenience with a peaceful residential setting. A wonderful opportunity for families or anyone looking for a move-in-ready home in a great location.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hacienda Elementary (528 students, 92% FRL); California City Middle (501 students, 87% FRL); California City High (655 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 704 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $310k implies a 687% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,203 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,398
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -3.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9407 Irene Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+1%)	1mo	$325,000	$227	82
9143 Rea Avenue Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+8%)	3mo	$344,400	$226	81
9508 Evelyn Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+5%)	0mo	$300,000	$203	78
9230 Karen Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-5%)	11mo	$273,000	$203	75
9331 Irene Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+7%)	4mo	$315,000	$209	72
21760 Hacienda Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+9%)	11mo	$290,000	$189	69
21717 96th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-7%)	7mo	$240,000	$184	66
9132 Quezon Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+7%)	12mo	$284,000	$188	54
8824 Lupine Loop	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-12%)	2mo	$240,000	$192	50
8801 Lupine Loop Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+10%)	8mo	$234,000	$150	45
9817 Karen Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+12%)	11mo	$295,000	$187	40
9121 Walpole Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (-13%)	12mo	$289,900	$236	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $158,604
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $489,854
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 704
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,292

Max offer price $268,155

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-149	+0% $-237	+5% $-325	+10% $-783
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-316	+0% $-237	+5% $-158	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-81	-0.5pp $-158	base $-237	+0.5pp $-317	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9019 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,600	$1.50	5d	1	0.10mi
9524 Sally Ave Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,300	$1.14	25d	1	0.47mi
21411 Hacienda Blvd Unit D California City, CA	2.0	2.0	898	$1,475	$1.64	25d	1	0.48mi
9548 Sally Ave Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	25d	1	0.51mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	25d	1	0.68mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	13d	1	0.70mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	5d	1	0.70mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	0.70mi
8816 Fuchsia Ave Unit PASSTHROUGH B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,550	$1.44	16d	1	0.75mi
9825 N Loop Blvd Unit B California City, CA	2.0	1.0	883	$1,350	$1.53	21d	1	0.76mi
9848 Sally Ave Unit 2 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,495	$1.53	25d	1	0.79mi
9933 N Loop Blvd Unit B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	895	$1,875	$2.09	25d	1	0.86mi
8332 Rea Ave California City, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	5d	1	0.87mi
8307 Charles Pl California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,750	$1.17	16d	1	0.89mi
8709 Xavier Ave Unit 3 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	16d	1	0.93mi
8531 Columbine Ave Unit B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	16d	1	0.94mi
21319 Conklin Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1816	$2,200	$1.21	45d	1	1.00mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	25d	1	1.01mi
10193 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	16d	1	1.08mi
21306 Bancroft Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,800	$1.99	5d	1	1.09mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	5d	1	1.09mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	16d	1	1.10mi
8318 Dogbane Ave Unit F California City, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,350	$1.53	25d	1	1.13mi
8651 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	5d	1	1.24mi
20961 83rd St Unit 6 California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	25d	1	1.28mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	5d	1	1.34mi
8801 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,600	$1.69	25d	1	1.37mi
20673 Medio St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,075	$1.23	25d	1	1.47mi
21032 79th St California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	25d	1	1.48mi
7819 Walpole Ave California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $310,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $310,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-03-29
    listed $310,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable neighborhood. This inviting property features a bright and open floor plan, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the fresh feel of brand-new carpet, adding comfort and style. Situated just minutes from local schools, parks, and shopping, this home combines convenience with a peaceful residential setting. A wonderful opportunity for families or anyone looking for a move-in-ready home in a great location.

18. 2026-03-03
    historical $2,300
19. 2025-09-25
    listed $2,300
20. 2025-09-25
    historical $2,300
21. 2025-08-09
    listed $2,300
22. 2025-07-31
    historical $2,300
23. 2025-03-27
    listed $2,300
24. 2012-12-31
    soldstatus $39,400 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    This a short sale-listing- subject to Lender Approval, Listing agent is specialized in Short Sale with 100% success rate zero denial all gets approved. Submit your offer with confidence ONLY ONE LOAN. provide 3 bedrooms 2 bath condition of property needs TLC due to tenant damage and carpet replacement due to pets.

25. 2012-06-11
    listed $35,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    This a short sale-listing- subject to Lender Approval, Listing agent is specialized in Short Sale with 100% success rate zero denial all gets approved. Submit your offer with confidence ONLY ONE LOAN. provide 3 bedrooms 2 bath condition of property needs TLC due to tenant damage and carpet replacement due to pets.

26. 2005-11-22
    soldstatus $214,000
27. 1991-10-09
    soldstatus $417,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,687/yr (+$141/mo · 252.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$8,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $-797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $310,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-03 Rental Removed $2,300 AVMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed for Rent $2,300 AVMLS
• 2025-09-25 Rental Removed $2,300 AVMLS
• 2025-08-09 Listed for Rent $2,300 AVMLS
• 2025-07-31 Rental Removed $2,300 AVMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed for Rent $2,300 AVMLS
• 2012-12-31 Sold (MLS) $39,400 AVMLS
• 2012-06-11 Listed $35,000 AVMLS
• 2005-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $214,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $417,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $669 · -16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.