Serendipity Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$349,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily · 417 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 416 days

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $334,530.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 417 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 417 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+4%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	69
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,835 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	66
9442 Spring Rain Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-3%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	66
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.09mi	3/3.0	2,033 (+15%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	65
9443 Garden Gate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-3%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	64
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (+12%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	64
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+5%)	1mo	$354,990	$190	62
1318 Shaded Rock Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+4%)	4mo	$344,990	$188	60
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+7%)	1mo	$352,990	$186	60
1310 Shaded Rock Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+4%)	3mo	$347,740	$189	59
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+8%)	0mo	$349,990	$183	53
1212 Shaded Rock Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+12%)	3mo	$365,115	$185	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-29,451
• Equity at exit: $70,161

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-25,249
• Equity at exit: $64,986

Cash invested: $93,668 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,754
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$418 /mo · $5,018/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,926

Max offer price $334,530

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $353	+0% $237	+5% $121	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $110	+0% $237	+5% $365	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $322	base $237	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,632
• Closing costs: $10,036
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	0.04mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.90mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,990 Active 417 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 414 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 413 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 412 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 411 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,990 Active 409 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,990 Active 405 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 403 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 400 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 399 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 398 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 397 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 396 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $349,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

15. 2026-02-12
    price $345,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

16. 2026-02-03
    price $344,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

17. 2026-01-23
    price $334,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

18. 2026-01-15
    price $364,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

19. 2025-12-15
    price $363,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

20. 2025-12-03
    status Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

21. 2025-12-02
    historical 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

22. 2025-12-02
    status Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

23. 2025-12-02
    historical 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

24. 2025-09-03
    price $362,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

25. 2025-08-19
    status Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

26. 2025-07-02
    historical 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

27. 2025-05-17
    price $342,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

28. 2025-05-01
    price $338,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

29. 2025-04-16
    price $335,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

30. 2025-03-27
    price $332,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

31. 2025-03-13
    listed $352,990 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Tall foyer ceilings in the single-story Serendipity duet home lead past the choice of a secondary bedroom or study into the centrally located kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio. The private primary suite boasts soaring ceilings and a luxurious bath with soaking tub and shower or oversized shower. A mud room with bench provides access to the 2-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,739
• − Property taxes: −$5,018
• − Insurance: −$1,673
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,097
• − Management: −$3,097
• − Depreciation: −$9,732
• Taxable loss: −$2,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$633
• After-tax cash flow: $3,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh coat of paint and a new ceiling fan to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Replace the ceiling fan — A new ceiling fan can improve the home's functionality and aesthetics.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling fan — A new ceiling fan can improve the home's functionality and aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $364,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $363,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $362,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $332,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-13 Listed $352,990 Zillow