14 Chevy Chase · North Amityville, NY 11701

$430,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1950 6,000 sqft lot $376/sqft · 25% below area Est $570k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch-style home. This home features four bedrooms, a full bath, a formal dining room, an eat-in kitchen, and a one-car garage. Centrally located to all. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $404k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in North Amityville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#770 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Copiague Union Free School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #506 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $570,329
• List price: $430,000
• Delta: -24.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Croydon Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	979 (-14%)	1mo	$540,000	$552	64
3 Emerald Ln S	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,042 (-9%)	16mo	$490,000	$470	62
129 43rd St	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,225 (+7%)	9mo	$560,000	$457	61
1 Somerset Rd W	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,007 (-12%)	8mo	$500,000	$497	59
29 Coolidge Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,190 (+4%)	6mo	$409,000	$344	52
85 Williams Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	6mo	$598,000	$544	51
19 Beta Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	20mo	$595,000	$541	50
466 44th St	0.72mi	4/1.0	1,270 (+11%)	3mo	$395,000	$311	46
52 Columbus Blvd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-5%)	9mo	$499,999	$462	44
60 Overland Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+8%)	8mo	$520,000	$422	43
6 Rodney Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	14mo	$595,000	$541	39
388 Vespucci Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (-11%)	2mo	$420,000	$412	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-60,078
• Equity at exit: $64,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-39,477
• Equity at exit: $37,179

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11701

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$714 /mo · $8,573/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$876
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,986

Max offer price $430,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
366 Broadway Amityville, NY	3.0	1.0–2.5	1354	$5,070	$3.74	1d	1	0.92mi
158 Oldfield Ave Amityville, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,100	$2.58	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-02-25
   listed $430,000 Active 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   Ranch-style home. This home features four bedrooms, a full bath, a formal dining room, an eat-in kitchen, and a one-car garage. Centrally located to all. Don't miss this opportunity!

2. 2025-10-10
   historical
3. 2025-08-27
   price $449,990
4. 2025-08-27
   status Active
5. 2025-07-16
   status Pending
6. 2025-07-16
   price $453,000
7. 2025-06-06
   price $395,000
8. 2025-05-22
   listed $300,000 Active
9. 2025-05-08
   historical
10. 2006-03-27
    soldstatus $290,000
11. 2004-10-19
    soldstatus $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,573 · $714/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,573 · $714/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$8,573
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,006
• − Management: −$4,006
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$5,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,261
• After-tax cash flow: $3,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copiague Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608310
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $69,215
• Composite: 35.09/100
• National rank: #5020
• State rank: #506 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Amityville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #770
• US rank: #14746

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Amityville, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,509
• Household income: $117,033
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 306.4465
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+68.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $430,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $449,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $453,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,573 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.