Ryan Plan · Deerwood, TX 77306

$181,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

We would love to introduce you to the 1030 / Ryan floor plan, located in our new Baron Village community! This lovely two-story house spans 1,030 square feet and holds three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Let's take a closer look into the comfort this home provides. .. Upon entering the home, you arrive in the foyer, which has vinyl flooring and sits just front of the stairway. The family room, dining room, and kitchen have an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for rejuvenating after a busy week or hosting celebrations with family and friends. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl floors, stainless-steel appliances, and extra countertop space, adding to the home's functionality and welcoming air. The primary bedroom sits at the back of the home, equipped with carpet flooring and a bright window that faces the backyard. Directly connected to the primary bedroom is the primary bathroom, which is equipped with a single sink and walk in closet. Journeying up the stairs, you enter into a hallway that leads to the two secondary bedrooms and the secondary bathroom. One secondary bedroom is positioned by the front of the house and feature soft carpet flooring, bright windows facing the front of the house. While the other secondary bedroom is positioned at the back of the house and is equipped with a tall, walk-in closet perfect for clothing and storage. Light streams into these rooms, adding to their inviting and welcoming appearance. The secondary bathroom

Key facts

• Listed 123 days

🏗️ New construction. The $181,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $201,681.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $182k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-796/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $160,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,681
• List price: $181,990
• Delta: -9.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-36,882
• Equity at exit: $30,071

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,455
• Equity at exit: $17,438

Cash invested: $56,471 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,025/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $192,079

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $3	+0% $-66	+5% $-136	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-133	+0% $-66	+5% $0	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-15	base $-66	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,420
• Closing costs: $6,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	26d	1	0.81mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	1d	1	0.93mi
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	46d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $181,990 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $181,990 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $181,990 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $181,990 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $181,990 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $181,990 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $181,990 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $181,990 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $181,990 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $181,990 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $181,990 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $181,990 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $181,990 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $181,990 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $181,990 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    listed $181,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    We would love to introduce you to the 1030 / Ryan floor plan, located in our new Baron Village community! This lovely two-story house spans 1,030 square feet and holds three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Let's take a closer look into the comfort this home provides. .. Upon entering the home, you arrive in the foyer, which has vinyl flooring and sits just front of the stairway. The family room, dining room, and kitchen have an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for rejuvenating after a busy week or hosting celebrations with family and friends. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl floors, stainless-steel appliances, and extra countertop space, adding to the home's functionality and welcoming air. The primary bedroom sits at the back of the home, equipped with carpet flooring and a bright window that faces the backyard. Directly connected to the primary bedroom is the primary bathroom, which is equipped with a single sink and walk in closet. Journeying up the stairs, you enter into a hallway that leads to the two secondary bedrooms and the secondary bathroom. One secondary bedroom is positioned by the front of the house and feature soft carpet flooring, bright windows facing the front of the house. While the other secondary bedroom is positioned at the back of the house and is equipped with a tall, walk-in closet perfect for clothing and storage. Light streams into these rooms, adding to their inviting and welcoming appearance. The secondary bathroom

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,297
• − Property taxes: −$3,025
• − Insurance: −$1,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$5,867
• Taxable loss: −$4,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Ryan Plan home in Deerwood, TX is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace vinyl flooring with hardwood — Improves aesthetic and adds value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances comfort and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace vinyl flooring with hardwood — Improves aesthetic and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances comfort and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $181,990 Zillow