805 Elk Knob Rd · Dryden, VA 24277

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

0.47 ac lot $53/sqft · 40% below area Est $116k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is knocking with this charming 3-bedroom cottage nestled on a spacious lot in the heart of Pennington. Bursting with potential, this property is the perfect canvas for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. With solid bones and a great layout, this home is ready for your vision and updates. The large lot offers plenty of room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional improvements making it an ideal project with strong upside potential. Whether you're searching for your next flip, rental investment, or a fixer-upper to make your own, this property checks all the boxes. -Convenient location -Generous lot size -Endless possibilities Don't miss your chance to turn this hidden gem into something special! schedule your showing today! Subject to E & O

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Convenient location
• Generous lot size

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#479 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $69k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $64,859 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.15%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,850
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -40.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $47,114
• Equity at exit: $41,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $116,423
• Equity at exit: $73,983

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24277

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $533

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $69,000 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking with this charming 3-bedroom cottage nestled on a spacious lot in the heart of Pennington. Bursting with potential, this property is the perfect canvas for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. With solid bones and a great layout, this home is ready for your vision and updates. The large lot offers plenty of room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional improvements making it an ideal project with strong upside potential. Whether you're searching for your next flip, rental investment, or a fixer-upper to make your own, this property checks all the boxes. -Convenient location -Generous lot size -Endless possibilities Don't miss your chance to turn this hidden gem into something special! schedule your showing today! Subject to E & O

17. 2026-05-07
    price $79,000 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking with this charming 3-bedroom cottage nestled on a spacious lot in the heart of Pennington. Bursting with potential, this property is the perfect canvas for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. With solid bones and a great layout, this home is ready for your vision and updates. The large lot offers plenty of room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional improvements making it an ideal project with strong upside potential. Whether you're searching for your next flip, rental investment, or a fixer-upper to make your own, this property checks all the boxes. -Convenient location -Generous lot size -Endless possibilities Don't miss your chance to turn this hidden gem into something special! schedule your showing today! Subject to E & O

18. 2026-03-24
    listed $79,900 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking with this charming 3-bedroom cottage nestled on a spacious lot in the heart of Pennington. Bursting with potential, this property is the perfect canvas for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. With solid bones and a great layout, this home is ready for your vision and updates. The large lot offers plenty of room for expansion, outdoor living, or additional improvements making it an ideal project with strong upside potential. Whether you're searching for your next flip, rental investment, or a fixer-upper to make your own, this property checks all the boxes. -Convenient location -Generous lot size -Endless possibilities Don't miss your chance to turn this hidden gem into something special! schedule your showing today! Subject to E & O

19. 1999-05-03
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $4,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $4,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dryden

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #20741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,379

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Current HPI: 165.997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+187.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $69,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $79,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $79,900 TVRMLS
• 1999-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $367 · +54.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.