203 Nottingham Cir · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$299,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1965 0.93 ac lot Est $376k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located in the Windsor Hills neighborhood with a backyard that is private and serene, this move-in ready classic two-story brick home offers plenty of space and timeless character. The main level features a generous living room with a gas fireplace, formal dining room, kitchen, and a den/home office with a convenient half bath. Hardwood floors run throughout much of the home. Upstairs, you'll find four bedrooms and two updated full bathrooms. The home also offers a third full bathroom in the basement plus built-in cabinetry and another gas log fireplace, providing added convenience for family and guests. Additional highlights include an attached garage, laundry room, screened p

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Private backyard
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• GAS FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DEN HOME OFFICE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Storm door(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Zoned heating; Zoned cooling; Attic fan
• Interior features: Storm windows; Finished walk-out basement; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-583/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 475 students, 90% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $300k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,633 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $376,134
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 Chesterfield Pl	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,902 (+7%)	7mo	$395,000	$136	74
103 Chesterfield Rd	0.29mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,748 (+2%)	5mo	$381,250	$139	73
121 Gatlin St	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,478 (-8%)	2mo	$306,000	$123	72
1218 Lakeview Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,496 (-8%)	6mo	$299,900	$120	63
1008 Grand View Circle Cir	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,710 (+0%)	1mo	$391,400	$144	62
574 Leesville Rd	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,742 (+1%)	13mo	$435,000	$159	62
1002 Grand View Cir	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,741 (+1%)	8mo	$310,000	$113	57
1043 Moreview Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,724 (+1%)	8mo	$330,000	$121	53
3000 Roundelay Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,614 (-3%)	6mo	$240,000	$92	40
205 Bentley Grove Way	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,492 (-8%)	12mo	$540,000	$217	35
403 Cornerstone Street St	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,337 (-14%)	8mo	$412,500	$177	33
212 Roundelay Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,398 (-11%)	10mo	$370,000	$154	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,645
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,976
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,549/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $291,324

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Hunterdale Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,400	$1.14	13d	1	0.69mi
217 Bentley Grove Way Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	2536	$3,495	$1.38	21d	1	0.73mi
7222 Richland Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2164	$1,950	$0.90	43d	1	0.79mi
211 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	13d	1	0.87mi
151 Kitty Hawk Sq Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,450	$0.81	21d	1	1.18mi
518 Northwynd Cir Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2224	$1,900	$0.85	43d	1	1.33mi
104 Tulane St Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	2764	$2,400	$0.87	13d	1	1.33mi
639 Wyndhurst Dr Unit 639 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1940	$700	$0.36	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $299,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $299,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,549 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,549 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,549
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+334.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $299,900 LMLS
• 2005-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2004-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,549 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.