405 Linden St · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$38,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1870 8,600 sqft lot $46/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced below assessment - this 2-bedroom, 1 bath home has an open floor plan on the main floor with a kitchen, dining area, living room, and a full bathroom. upstairs there are two good size bedrooms, the furnace is brand new and was installed in December, the hot water heater is gas, the electric is circuit breakers. the roof is metal. The house sits on an oversized lot with a huge, fenced yard with lots of room to put a garage, have a large garden, and space for outdoor activities. Call an agent today to set up your showing.

Key facts

• Gas hot water heater
• Open floor plan
• New furnace

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FENCED YARD
• OVERSIZED LOT
• METAL ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• GAS HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($882 rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $669 of equity ($263 loan paydown + $406 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $38k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $33,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.95%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,845
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -57.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Linden St	0.03mi	2/1.5	866 (+5%)	3mo	$75,000	$87	86
1805 Jay St	0.22mi	2/1.0	900 (+9%)	13mo	$130,000	$144	65
2102 Montgomery St	0.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-13%)	10mo	$88,500	$123	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $28,492
• Equity at exit: $13,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $67,750
• Equity at exit: $17,520

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $38,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-03-30
   price $38,000 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Priced below assessment - this 2-bedroom, 1 bath home has an open floor plan on the main floor with a kitchen, dining area, living room, and a full bathroom. upstairs there are two good size bedrooms, the furnace is brand new and was installed in December, the hot water heater is gas, the electric is circuit breakers. the roof is metal. The house sits on an oversized lot with a huge, fenced yard with lots of room to put a garage, have a large garden, and space for outdoor activities. Call an agent today to set up your showing.

3. 2026-01-11
   listed $47,000 Active 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Priced below assessment - this 2-bedroom, 1 bath home has an open floor plan on the main floor with a kitchen, dining area, living room, and a full bathroom. upstairs there are two good size bedrooms, the furnace is brand new and was installed in December, the hot water heater is gas, the electric is circuit breakers. the roof is metal. The house sits on an oversized lot with a huge, fenced yard with lots of room to put a garage, have a large garden, and space for outdoor activities. Call an agent today to set up your showing.

4. 2011-06-21
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$847
• − Management: −$847
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $4,895
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $4,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+52.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $38,000 SLCMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $47,000 SLCMLS
• 2011-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,319 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.