9262 Aurelia Ave · Ruskin, FL 34219

$480,166

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,828 sqft · Land · 86 Days on market

Built 2025 6,100 sqft lot $15/mo HOA ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. The Sequoia is an elegant two-story single-family home designed for those who appreciate open, luxurious living paired with private retreat spaces. With its striking architecture and flexible layout, the Sequoia blends everyday comfort with upscale design—perfect for modern lifestyles in the heart of Crosswind Ranch. From the moment you enter, a welcoming foyer sets the tone, leading into expansive main living areas ideal for entertaining. The open-concept family room, dining space, and gourmet kitchen create a seamless flow, enhanced by a large center island, walk-in pantry, designer cabinetry, and premium countertop options. Oversized windows and optio

Key facts

• Large center island
• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DESIGNER CABINETRY
• PREMIUM COUNTERTOP OPTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported by builder; Builder license number CGC1524054
• Financial info: CDD applies; Lease restrictions in place
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee $15 (includes pool); Association provides pool, playground, pickleball courts, trails, and fence restrictions; Community features include dog park, playground, pool, sidewalks, and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20) with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Pre-construction (projected completion May 1, 2026); Two levels; Builder: Mattamy Homes — Sequoia Craftsman model; Faces west; PD-MU zoning
• Construction: Block, cement siding, stucco, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Level, paved lot with street sidewalk; Florida-friendly/native landscaping; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; In-wall pest system; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Double pane insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hook-up; Dryer hook-up (gas); Inside laundry room on upper level; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-751 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $326,884 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.70%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-135,156
• Equity at exit: $71,594

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-216,061
• Equity at exit: $41,516

Cash invested: $134,446 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,518
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$600 /mo · $7,202/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $-751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,219

Max offer price $371,504

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-419	-5% $-585	+0% $-751	+5% $-917	+10% $-1,083
Rent	-10% $-1,009	-5% $-880	+0% $-751	+5% $-622	+10% $-493
Rate	-1.0pp $-509	-0.5pp $-629	base $-751	+0.5pp $-875	+1.0pp $-1,002

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,042
• Closing costs: $14,405
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13089 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2471	$2,650	$1.07	25d	1	1.06mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	13d	1	1.11mi
12930 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,679	$1.09	23d	1	1.11mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	12d	1	1.33mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	5d	1	1.33mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	5d	1	1.40mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	13d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $480,166 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $480,166 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $480,166 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $480,166 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $480,166 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,166 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,166 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $480,166 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $480,166 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $480,166 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $480,166 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $480,166 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $480,166 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $480,166 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $480,166 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    status Active
17. 2026-04-28
    price $480,166
18. 2025-12-16
    listed $524,166 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,897
• − Property taxes: −$7,202
• − Insurance: −$2,401
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,138
• − Management: −$3,138
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$13,968
• Taxable loss: −$17,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $480,166 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listed $524,166 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid