9 Lily Ct · Woodbury, NY 10930

$119,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 81 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition $122/sqft · 11% above area Est $108k · 11% over $980/mo HOA · 32% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfort and convenience in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom +bonus room, mobile home with a fenced in rear yard. Located in the highly sought-after Monroe School District. This home offers a spacious and open layout, perfect for modern living. The primary suite features an en-suite bathroom for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms provide ample space for guests, or a home office. Situated in a prime location, this home is conveniently located near major highways, making commuting a breeze. Enjoy shopping at the renowned Woodbury Commons Outlets, as well as a variety of nearby restaurants and entertainment options. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this affordable, move-in-ready home in a fantastic location!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2017
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 1.9% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,795 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.41%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,805
• List price: $119,995
• Delta: 11.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Lily Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	884 (-10%)	12mo	$103,000	$117	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $17,664
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $65,060
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10930

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$980
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $119,995

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,999
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
287 New York 32 Unit 2N Central Valley, NY	2.0	2.0	850	$2,350	$2.76	43d	1	1.23mi
262 New York 32 Unit A Central Valley, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	13d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $980 · $11,760/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,995 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,995 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,995 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,995 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,995 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,995 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,995 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,995 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,995 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,995 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,995 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,995 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-03-26
    listed $119,995 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Discover comfort and convenience in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom +bonus room, mobile home with a fenced in rear yard. Located in the highly sought-after Monroe School District. This home offers a spacious and open layout, perfect for modern living. The primary suite features an en-suite bathroom for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms provide ample space for guests, or a home office. Situated in a prime location, this home is conveniently located near major highways, making commuting a breeze. Enjoy shopping at the renowned Woodbury Commons Outlets, as well as a variety of nearby restaurants and entertainment options. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this affordable, move-in-ready home in a fantastic location!

14. 2026-01-01
    historical
15. 2025-11-10
    price $135,000
16. 2025-06-04
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$1,266
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,961
• − Management: −$2,961
• − HOA: −$11,760
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $5,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home offers a spacious and open layout with good condition throughout. Minor touch-ups and maintenance can further enhance its appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Clean and maintain deck area — A clean and well-maintained deck can attract renters and increase rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain deck area — A clean and well-maintained deck can attract renters and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe-Woodbury Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619650
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $104,681
• Composite: 50.48/100
• National rank: #1855
• State rank: #250 of 590 in NY

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #11975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 9,402
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,569
• Household income: $120,098
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 104.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 271.431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $119,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $135,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Listed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid