166 Freshwater Ln · Ludowici, GA 31316

$279,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 0.60 ac lot $190/sqft · at area comps Est $275k · at est. $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

LIMITED TIME OFFER. .. builder will contribute up to $10,000 toward closing costs when using the preferred lender. Welcome to new construction in Lanier Ridge, a premier Ludowici community. This home features a spacious living room and a modern kitchen/dining boasting granite countertops, custom cabinets, deep under mount sink with Moen pull out faucet, stainless steel appliances, and a ceramic tile backsplash. The master bedroom features a spacious bedroom filled with natural light and a large walk-in closet. The bathroom is designed for luxury and convenience, offering double vanities with granite countertops, a relaxing tub with a separate glass-door shower. The other two bedrooms and a

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• New construction
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• DEEP UNDER MOUNT SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $468 (about $39/month); Subdivision: Lanier Ridge; Community sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Spray foam insulation; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; No fencing; Shingle roof; Paved road access; Approximately 0.6 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; No fireplace; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,629 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,153
• List price: $279,400
• Delta: 1.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Lanier Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	5mo	$274,900	$186	88
53 Freshwater Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-4%)	3mo	$274,400	$194	87
241 NE Freshwater Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-4%)	4mo	$274,900	$194	86
263 Lanier Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-4%)	3mo	$274,400	$194	84
707 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+4%)	1mo	$274,830	$180	82
685 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-6%)	2mo	$262,975	$191	77
555 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+6%)	3mo	$277,625	$177	73
725 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+6%)	1mo	$278,925	$178	72
52 Freshwater Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	3mo	$285,178	$193	69
92 Freshwater Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-0%)	4mo	$284,800	$193	68
612 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+10%)	2mo	$281,325	$174	65
74 Freshwater Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-4%)	0mo	$278,000	$196	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,990
• Equity at exit: $97,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $32,866
• Equity at exit: $131,633

Cash invested: $78,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,465
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,191/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,494

Max offer price $248,853

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-115	+0% $-211	+5% $-308	+10% $-404
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-299	+0% $-211	+5% $-123	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-140	base $-211	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,850
• Closing costs: $8,382
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Clark St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	44d	1	1.04mi
59 Forest St NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	44d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,400 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,400 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,400 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,400 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,400 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,400 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,400 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,400 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,400 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,400 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,400 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,400 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,400 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,400 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,400 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,400 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,400 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,400 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-04-23
    listed $279,400 Active 1075-char remark
20. 2025-06-30
    price $279,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,651
• − Property taxes: −$4,191
• − Insurance: −$1,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,128
• Taxable loss: −$7,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $279,400 HABR
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $279,400 HABR