3444 Paper Mill Rd · Taylor, AZ 85937

$299,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,958 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1988 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2.5 acres with two dwellings. Close to town, yet tucked away. Listing choice is site-built; it is 2 bdrm home with partial wood-frame, partial 18 in. earth walls. Family room with loft above for office or extra room. Large utility room and pantry/storage. 2nd dwelling is enclosed 1968 3 bdrm manufactured home with add on for a total of approximately 1200 sf. One room could be used as an office or bedroom. Attached is a 11' 6'' x 46 garage work room/storage. Both dwellings enclosed and stucco. Also a fenced yard on the manufactured home. There are several storage dwellings on the property. Really nice view to the north of state land.

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approx. 2.50 acres; Raising horses is allowed; Located in Taylor Unsubdivision
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private well; APS electricity available; Individual electric meter; Propane tank (leased) available; Bottled gas available; Telephone service available; Water available; Sewer available; Power available
• Home design: Site-built property; One-and-a-half story
• Construction: Masonry and wood frame construction; Slab and stemwall foundation; Metal and rolled roofing
• Exterior features: Deck; Additional outbuilding; RV hook-up; Partly fenced with wire fence; Trees on property; Private-maintained road; Adjoins private and state land

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Electric range; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Shower
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Fireplace; Fireplace with insert; Woodstove
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Taylor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#71 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $230k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $205,066 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.47%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $134,543
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $418,934
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $234,420

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$10,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,604
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #11662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taylor, AZ
• City population: 3,729
• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+30.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $299,900 WMMLS
• 2021-04-13 Sold (MLS) $230,000 WMMLS