5809 Callaway Cir · Callaway, FL 32404

$163,750

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $248k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity at Sentinel Point Townhomes - Callaway, FL Bring your creativity and personal touch to make this space truly stand out--whether you're looking to enhance its rental appeal or create a stylish, comfortable home. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath end unit townhome features a spacious layout and includes a convenient one-car garage--perfect for tenants or long-term value. Community amenities include a refreshing pool, while the HOA provides added convenience by covering lawn care. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a smart investment in a growing area, this property may checks the boxes. Located in Callaway, Florida near Panama City, this newer co

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 2019

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,293 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,597
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5768 Callaway Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,519 (0%)	15mo	$193,000	$127	84
5829 Bay Pl Unit 61	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,519 (0%)	24mo	$230,000	$151	75
5895 Tyndall Pl	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+2%)	12mo	$244,850	$158	65
5884 Tyndall Pl	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+2%)	11mo	$259,850	$167	64
5897 Tyndall Pl	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,453 (-4%)	14mo	$249,850	$172	60
5885 Tyndall Pl	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,453 (-4%)	18mo	$249,496	$172	55
5860 Tyndall Pl	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,306 (-14%)	10mo	$225,350	$173	46
5858 Tyndall Pl	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,306 (-14%)	15mo	$209,900	$161	43
5856 Tyndall Pl	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,306 (-14%)	15mo	$212,565	$163	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,345
• Equity at exit: $24,416

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $752
• Equity at exit: $14,158

Cash invested: $45,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$859
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,710/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,459

Max offer price $163,750

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,938
• Closing costs: $4,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 Camellia Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,950	$1.42	21d	1	0.33mi
420 Raven Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,750	$1.40	21d	1	0.38mi
5817 Jasmine Ct Panama City, FL	4.0	2.5	1633	$2,000	$1.22	13d	1	0.46mi
229 Callaway Chase Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	13d	1	0.64mi
6121 Harvey St Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,050	$0.88	21d	1	0.74mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	21d	1	0.75mi
906 Kevin Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	21d	1	0.78mi
5101 Willow St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	13d	1	0.84mi
4141 E 15th St Panama City, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1082	$1,825	$1.69	13d	9	0.93mi
208 North Highway 22 A Unit 33 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,350	$1.25	21d	1	0.95mi
129 Seneca Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,495	$1.03	13d	1	1.05mi
163 Lauren Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,300	$1.33	21d	1	1.14mi
175 N Berthe Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	13d	1	1.21mi
114 S Kimbrel Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	1.23mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	21d	1	1.29mi
3719 E 8th Ct Panama City, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,300	$1.37	21d	1	1.36mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	13d	1	1.39mi
1401 Transmitter Rd Unit 15 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $163,750 Active
3. 2017-11-13
   soldstatus $1,680,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,710 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,710 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,173
• − Property taxes: −$2,710
• − Insurance: −$819
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$4,764
• Taxable income: $959
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$230
• After-tax cash flow: $3,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-90.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $163,750 CPARMLS
• 2017-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $1,680,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,710 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.