110 Gold Key Rd · Gold Key Lake, PA 18337

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 295 Days on market

Built 1984 0.35 ac lot $172/sqft · 31% below area Est $262k · 31% under $119/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Lake community
• Level lot

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• LEVEL LOT
• LAKE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $180k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,237
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -31.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Gold Key Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+10%)	14mo	$201,000	$174	70
107 Redwood Rd	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,152 (+10%)	4mo	$130,000	$113	67
120 Indian Pipe Ter	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,146 (+9%)	14mo	$292,490	$255	60
107 Kiel Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	7mo	$285,000	$254	53
107 Bricker Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+1%)	24mo	$250,000	$237	46
106 Hill Ter	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+1%)	20mo	$145,000	$137	43
127 Slaymaker Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (-2%)	24mo	$222,000	$217	38
102 Bluejay Ct	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,205 (+15%)	21mo	$254,000	$211	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-20,383
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,118
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,090/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$119
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,950	$1.90	1d	1	1.46mi
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,800	$1.76	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $119 · $1,428/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 277 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    status Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

16. 2026-03-01
    status Pending 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

17. 2026-01-31
    price $179,900 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

18. 2025-11-12
    price $189,900 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

19. 2025-08-23
    price $200,000 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

20. 2025-07-30
    price $210,000 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

21. 2025-07-07
    listed $220,000 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Nice Ranch home in Gold Key Lake Estates. Level lot near the community entrance. Enjoy country living in a lake community with many amities that include beach, swimming, , lodge, fishing, restaurant, playground, lounge, and much more. This is your opportunity to have country life and an easy commute to local towns and New York/New Jersey. . HOME WARRANTY!

22. 2001-01-08
    soldstatus $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,090 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,090 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$3,090
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,198
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $1,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gold Key Lake, PA
• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+126.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-03-01 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $179,900 PWMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $189,900 PWMLS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $200,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $210,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $220,000 PWMLS
• 2001-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,090 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.