2958 Vineyards Pkwy #5 · Branson, MO 65616

$183,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · Condo public records · 143 Days on market

Built 2007 $158/sqft · 18% below area Est $223k · 18% under $265/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolute stunner at a great price! Renovated floor-to-ceiling with high-end EVERYTHING! Granite countertops, luxury vinyl floors, black stainless appliances, and custom bathrooms to match. All furniture and decor included!

Key facts

• $265 HOA
• Pool
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $183k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.5% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1048 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,923
• List price: $183,000
• Delta: -17.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-24,165
• Equity at exit: $27,286

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-14,246
• Equity at exit: $15,822

Cash invested: $51,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1048
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $183,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $139	+0% $88	+5% $36	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $15	+0% $88	+5% $160	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $134	base $88	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,750
• Closing costs: $5,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	44d	1	0.05mi
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	44d	1	0.05mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	44d	1	0.66mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	44d	1	1.10mi
325 Majestic Dr Branson, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,650	$1.75	44d	2	1.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $265 · $3,180/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $183,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $183,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $183,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $183,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $183,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $183,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $183,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $183,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $183,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $183,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $183,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Absolute stunner at a great price! Renovated floor-to-ceiling with high-end EVERYTHING! Granite countertops, luxury vinyl floors, black stainless appliances, and custom bathrooms to match. All furniture and decor included!

17. 2026-04-20
    price $184,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Absolute stunner at a great price! Renovated floor-to-ceiling with high-end EVERYTHING! Granite countertops, luxury vinyl floors, black stainless appliances, and custom bathrooms to match. All furniture and decor included!

18. 2026-01-27
    listed $184,900 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Absolute stunner at a great price! Renovated floor-to-ceiling with high-end EVERYTHING! Granite countertops, luxury vinyl floors, black stainless appliances, and custom bathrooms to match. All furniture and decor included!

19. 2025-02-14
    price $204,900
20. 2024-11-13
    listed $212,500 Active
21. 2024-02-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,007/yr (+$84/mo · 131.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,251
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,324
• Taxable loss: −$1,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $183,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $184,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-27 Listed $184,900 SOMO
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $204,900 SOMO
• 2024-11-13 Listed $212,500 SOMO
• 2024-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.