8339 Hampton Bay Dr · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$330,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2012 0.26 ac lot $110/sqft · 24% below area Est $343k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 8339 Hampton Bay, a 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage. The first floor offers a versatile office space, complete with a live-edge countertop and shelving. The kitchen is complete with granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom is located downstairs, offering a peaceful retreat with dual sinks, a garden tub, a separate shower, and an expansive walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious game room, a utility room, and three additional bedrooms, each with ample closet space and two full bathrooms on the second floor. The oversized backyard is a perfect spot for outdoor entertainment, with ample space for a pool and a storage shed to meet all your needs. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in the highly sought-after Barbers Hill School District, this home offers easy access to I-10 and the Grand Parkway, ensuring you’re always close to major routes and amenities.

Key facts

• Live-edge countertop
• Separate shower
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LIVE-EDGE COUNTERTOP
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.6% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,656 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,820
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -3.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8438 Bay Oaks Dr	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (-2%)	4mo	$369,900	$126	81
4703 Bay Vista Dr	0.13mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (-2%)	4mo	$368,881	$126	80
4727 Bay Vista Dr	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (-2%)	4mo	$384,600	$131	79
4815 Manila Bay Cir	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,692 (-10%)	0mo	$419,900	$156	73
8511 Holly Spring Ln	0.36mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,069 (+3%)	2mo	$385,000	$125	69
4839 Echo Bay Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,671 (-11%)	2mo	$259,900	$97	66
8407 Tranquil Bay Ct	0.03mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,563 (-14%)	3mo	$398,128	$155	65
8430 Bay Oaks Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,563 (-14%)	5mo	$372,500	$145	61
8614 Briar Oaks Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,778 (-7%)	2mo	$359,998	$130	60
4715 Bay Vista Dr	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,563 (-14%)	4mo	$367,000	$143	59
5122 Creekside Ave	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,690 (-10%)	5mo	$360,000	$134	59
8611 Rocky River St	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,658 (-11%)	1mo	$345,000	$130	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-65,944
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-69,837
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$496 /mo · $5,946/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,030

Max offer price $291,860

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-122	+0% $-216	+5% $-309	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-325	+0% $-216	+5% $-107	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-132	base $-216	+0.5pp $-301	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	26d	1	0.69mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	26d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Welcome to 8339 Hampton Bay, a 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage. The first floor offers a versatile office space, complete with a live-edge countertop and shelving. The kitchen is complete with granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom is located downstairs, offering a peaceful retreat with dual sinks, a garden tub, a separate shower, and an expansive walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious game room, a utility room, and three additional bedrooms, each with ample closet space and two full bathrooms on the second floor. The oversized backyard is a perfect spot for outdoor entertainment, with ample space for a pool and a storage shed to meet all your needs. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in the highly sought-after Barbers Hill School District, this home offers easy access to I-10 and the Grand Parkway, ensuring you’re always close to major routes and amenities.

2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Welcome to 8339 Hampton Bay, a 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage. The first floor offers a versatile office space, complete with a live-edge countertop and shelving. The kitchen is complete with granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom is located downstairs, offering a peaceful retreat with dual sinks, a garden tub, a separate shower, and an expansive walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious game room, a utility room, and three additional bedrooms, each with ample closet space and two full bathrooms on the second floor. The oversized backyard is a perfect spot for outdoor entertainment, with ample space for a pool and a storage shed to meet all your needs. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in the highly sought-after Barbers Hill School District, this home offers easy access to I-10 and the Grand Parkway, ensuring you’re always close to major routes and amenities.

3. 2025-12-17
   listed $330,000 Active 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Welcome to 8339 Hampton Bay, a 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car attached garage. The first floor offers a versatile office space, complete with a live-edge countertop and shelving. The kitchen is complete with granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom is located downstairs, offering a peaceful retreat with dual sinks, a garden tub, a separate shower, and an expansive walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious game room, a utility room, and three additional bedrooms, each with ample closet space and two full bathrooms on the second floor. The oversized backyard is a perfect spot for outdoor entertainment, with ample space for a pool and a storage shed to meet all your needs. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in the highly sought-after Barbers Hill School District, this home offers easy access to I-10 and the Grand Parkway, ensuring you’re always close to major routes and amenities.

4. 2025-07-31
   historical
5. 2025-05-01
   price $350,000
6. 2025-04-17
   price $360,000
7. 2025-03-27
   listed $370,000 Active
8. 2022-08-31
   soldstatus Sold
9. 2022-08-26
   soldstatus
10. 2022-08-05
    status Pending
11. 2022-07-31
    status Option Pending
12. 2022-07-21
    listed $369,900 Active
13. 2022-07-19
    historical
14. 2022-07-04
    price $369,900
15. 2022-07-03
    status Active
16. 2022-06-30
    status Option Pending
17. 2022-06-27
    listed $379,900 Active
18. 2020-05-27
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2020-05-27
    soldstatus
20. 2020-05-02
    status Pending
21. 2020-04-21
    status Option Pending
22. 2020-04-08
    listed $254,900 Active
23. 2020-03-20
    soldstatus
24. 2013-06-21
    historical
25. 2013-05-05
    listed $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,946 · $496/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,039 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$5,946
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$8,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,981
• After-tax cash flow: $-610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+88.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Listed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2022-07-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-04 Price Changed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2022-07-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-27 Listed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2020-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-08 Listed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2020-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-05-05 Listed $175,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,946 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.