Carlsbad Plan · Dayton, TX 77535

$349,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,220 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition 3-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into modern design with the Carlsbad floor plan! At the heart of the home is a spacious open-concept great room, which flows into a dining area and an impressive kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. The adjacent primary suite boasts a walk-in closet and a primary bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. You'll also find two secondary bedrooms and a private study in this attractive layout.

Key facts

• Primary bath
• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• IMPRESSIVE KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIMARY BATH
• DUAL VANITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $391,981.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (44.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.5% in Dayton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richter El (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 875 students, 62% FRL); Wilson J H (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,396 students, 74% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1761 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,859 (44.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.96%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 16.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,981
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -10.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 Road 66112	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,339 (+5%)	1mo	$379,500	$162	84
1515 Northern Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,326 (+5%)	3mo	$425,000	$183	80
265 Road 662	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,194 (-1%)	1mo	$399,000	$182	71
229 Road 66111	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,255 (+2%)	1mo	$379,000	$168	70
500 Road 66111	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,007 (-10%)	1mo	$459,000	$229	64
1503 Northern Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,450 (+10%)	2mo	$450,000	$184	62
266 Road 66111	0.46mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,352 (+6%)	0mo	$490,000	$208	58
4036 Road 66124	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,034 (-8%)	1mo	$389,775	$192	54
4025 Road 66124	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,050 (-8%)	2mo	$387,771	$189	51
1324 Road 6604	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,500 (+13%)	3mo	$440,000	$176	47
31 Road 6609	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,510 (+13%)	2mo	$499,900	$199	45
158 Road 6609	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,451 (+10%)	3mo	$369,975	$151	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-138,981
• Equity at exit: $58,446

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.99×
• Total profit: $-218,113
• Equity at exit: $33,891

Cash invested: $109,755 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $429,750 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1761
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,056
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$490 /mo · $5,880/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-1,185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,429

Max offer price $220,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-914	-5% $-1,050	+0% $-1,185	+5% $-1,321	+10% $-1,456
Rent	-10% $-1,338	-5% $-1,261	+0% $-1,185	+5% $-1,109	+10% $-1,033
Rate	-1.0pp $-988	-0.5pp $-1,086	base $-1,185	+0.5pp $-1,287	+1.0pp $-1,390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,995
• Closing costs: $11,759
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1112 Road 660 Dayton, TX	3.0	2.0	2121	$2,596	$1.22	32d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1355 Coastal Dr, Dayton TX 77535
• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces (3-car garage)
• Home design: Carlsbad plan (new construction plan)
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Living area of 2220

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $349,990 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $349,990 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $349,990 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 144 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 143 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 142 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 136 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 135 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 134 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 133 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 132 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 131 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 130 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 129 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 123 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 122 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,957
• − Property taxes: −$5,880
• − Insurance: −$1,960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$11,403
• Taxable loss: −$21,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,100–$33,300 screening

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance needs, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Flooring in bedrooms — Upgrading carpet to hardwood or tile can increase rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A new or updated HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Austin El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Wilson J H F TX #911/1,662 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Dayton H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1355 Coastal Dr, Dayton TX 77535
• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces (3-car garage)
• Home design: Carlsbad plan (new construction plan)
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Living area of 2220

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area