HOLDEN Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$305,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the perfect fusion of comfort and functionality with this thoughtfully designed Express Series home floorplan. The custom, architecturally designed exterior, adorned with divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, presents a welcoming facade. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated door, offering a warm invitation inside. Upon entry, a spacious foyer seamlessly transitions into the home's inviting living spaces. The kitchen, a hub of activity, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, ensuring both style and practicality. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and ample pantry space cater to everyday needs. The primary bedroom, a serene sanctuary, boasts an adjoining bathroom designed for effortless mornings. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, provides ample space and comfort. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and soft ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a cozy and comfortable atmosphere. This Express Series home is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more! The combination of this floorplan's well-designed layout and contemporary features makes it an ideal choice for comfortable l

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 30 inch cabinets
• Front facing garage

Tags

• DIVIDED LIGHT WINDOWS
• FRONT FACING GARAGE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS FOYER
• 30 INCH CABINETS
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $305,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,908.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-664 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,698 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,908
• List price: $305,490
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Saddletree Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,368 (+2%)	1mo	$351,205	$148	94
500 Northern Red Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,314 (0%)	1mo	$303,490	$131	82
205 Weathered Way	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,042 (-12%)	2mo	$342,990	$168	74
404 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,454 (+6%)	1mo	$340,990	$139	72
204 Shady Bank Way	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,454 (+6%)	2mo	$414,686	$169	70
1133 Bristlecone Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-12%)	0mo	$324,990	$161	66
305 Silo Cir	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,074 (-10%)	2mo	$259,999	$125	65
708 Wisteria Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,155 (-7%)	1mo	$255,000	$118	63
1307 Community Way	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,104 (-9%)	2mo	$265,000	$126	62
512 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-12%)	2mo	$291,535	$144	58
516 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-12%)	1mo	$301,490	$148	55
501 Farmhouse Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,070 (-10%)	2mo	$279,000	$135	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $141,245
• Equity at exit: $303,513

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $449,251
• Equity at exit: $654,538

Cash invested: $94,334 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,767
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,054/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,947

Max offer price $240,859

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-431	-5% $-547	+0% $-664	+5% $-780	+10% $-897
Rent	-10% $-830	-5% $-747	+0% $-664	+5% $-581	+10% $-497
Rate	-1.0pp $-494	-0.5pp $-578	base $-664	+0.5pp $-751	+1.0pp $-840

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,227
• Closing costs: $10,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	0.34mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.36mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.37mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.37mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.39mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.39mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.44mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	0.47mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	0.58mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	0.59mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	0.60mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.60mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.60mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.64mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	14d	1	0.72mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	0.76mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	0.76mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.79mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	0.80mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	0.85mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	0.86mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.96mi
1910 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,995	$1.25	26d	1	1.24mi
2000 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1947	$2,500	$1.28	4d	1	1.26mi
903 Shear Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1898	$2,000	$1.05	4d	1	1.28mi
816 Country Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$2,550	$1.23	0d	1	1.30mi
916 Sunrise Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,900	$1.20	20d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,490 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,490 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,490 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,490 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,490 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,490 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,490 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,490 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,490 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $305,490 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $305,490 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,490 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,490 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,490 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,490 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-04-04
    price $303,490 1517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1517 chars)

    Experience the perfect fusion of comfort and functionality with this thoughtfully designed Express Series home floorplan. The custom, architecturally designed exterior, adorned with divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, presents a welcoming facade. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated door, offering a warm invitation inside. Upon entry, a spacious foyer seamlessly transitions into the home's inviting living spaces. The kitchen, a hub of activity, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, ensuring both style and practicality. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and ample pantry space cater to everyday needs. The primary bedroom, a serene sanctuary, boasts an adjoining bathroom designed for effortless mornings. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, provides ample space and comfort. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and soft ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a cozy and comfortable atmosphere. This Express Series home is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more! The combination of this floorplan's well-designed layout and contemporary features makes it an ideal choice for comfortable l

17. 2026-02-17
    price $301,490 1517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1517 chars)

    Experience the perfect fusion of comfort and functionality with this thoughtfully designed Express Series home floorplan. The custom, architecturally designed exterior, adorned with divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, presents a welcoming facade. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated door, offering a warm invitation inside. Upon entry, a spacious foyer seamlessly transitions into the home's inviting living spaces. The kitchen, a hub of activity, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, ensuring both style and practicality. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and ample pantry space cater to everyday needs. The primary bedroom, a serene sanctuary, boasts an adjoining bathroom designed for effortless mornings. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, provides ample space and comfort. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and soft ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a cozy and comfortable atmosphere. This Express Series home is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more! The combination of this floorplan's well-designed layout and contemporary features makes it an ideal choice for comfortable l

18. 2026-01-03
    price $300,490 1517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1517 chars)

    Experience the perfect fusion of comfort and functionality with this thoughtfully designed Express Series home floorplan. The custom, architecturally designed exterior, adorned with divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, presents a welcoming facade. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated door, offering a warm invitation inside. Upon entry, a spacious foyer seamlessly transitions into the home's inviting living spaces. The kitchen, a hub of activity, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, ensuring both style and practicality. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and ample pantry space cater to everyday needs. The primary bedroom, a serene sanctuary, boasts an adjoining bathroom designed for effortless mornings. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, provides ample space and comfort. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and soft ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a cozy and comfortable atmosphere. This Express Series home is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more! The combination of this floorplan's well-designed layout and contemporary features makes it an ideal choice for comfortable l

19. 2025-12-09
    listed $299,990 Active 1517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1517 chars)

    Experience the perfect fusion of comfort and functionality with this thoughtfully designed Express Series home floorplan. The custom, architecturally designed exterior, adorned with divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, presents a welcoming facade. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated door, offering a warm invitation inside. Upon entry, a spacious foyer seamlessly transitions into the home's inviting living spaces. The kitchen, a hub of activity, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, ensuring both style and practicality. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and ample pantry space cater to everyday needs. The primary bedroom, a serene sanctuary, boasts an adjoining bathroom designed for effortless mornings. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, provides ample space and comfort. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and soft ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a cozy and comfortable atmosphere. This Express Series home is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more! The combination of this floorplan's well-designed layout and contemporary features makes it an ideal choice for comfortable l

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,872
• − Property taxes: −$5,054
• − Insurance: −$1,685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$9,801
• Taxable loss: −$14,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,401
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $303,490 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $301,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $300,490 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Listed $299,990 Zillow