409 W Springer Ave · Guthrie, OK 73044

$98,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1926 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor or handy homeowner special in the heart of Guthrie. This property is packed with potential and ready for someone with vision to transform it into something special. Located just minutes from historic downtown Guthrie, the home offers a functional layout, established surroundings, and the opportunity to build equity through updates and improvements. Ideal for a renovation project, rental addition, or a buyer looking to customize a home to their own style. Conveniently located near local shops, restaurants, schools, and highway access for an easy commute to the OKC metro area. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the potential this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Highway access
• Functional layout
• Schools

Tags

• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN GUTHRIE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• LOCAL SHOPS
• RESTAURANTS
• SCHOOLS
• HIGHWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Guthrie Proper addition
• Financial info: Loan qualification possible; Not assumable
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Private outdoor pool
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property; Existing property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Combination foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Interior lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: One living area; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Es (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $98k implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.21%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 S 2nd St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-5%)	14mo	$220,000	$153	70
223 S 1st St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,473 (-3%)	17mo	$186,200	$126	64
319 S 1st St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,325 (-12%)	8mo	$190,000	$143	64
314 W Springer Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-10%)	17mo	$202,000	$148	63
402 S 2nd St	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (-13%)	3mo	$113,000	$86	62
410 S 1st St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-14%)	6mo	$200,000	$153	61
709 E Vilas Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,415 (-6%)	6mo	$60,000	$42	53
413 E Perkins Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	12mo	$219,000	$156	51
701 E Grant Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+9%)	14mo	$251,000	$152	37
611 N Broad St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-10%)	15mo	$43,000	$32	37
316 N 11th St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-11%)	7mo	$170,000	$126	35
524 E Harrison Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (-12%)	13mo	$220,000	$165	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $30,223
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $111,588
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 S 2nd St Apt A Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1932	$1,300	$0.67	1d	1	0.18mi
208 E Oklahoma Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,450	$0.81	1d	1	0.38mi
520 E Springer Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,300	$1.19	23d	1	0.54mi
409 E Hill Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,445	$1.11	10d	1	1.11mi
1211 Clydesdale Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,625	$1.28	1d	1	1.14mi
406 S Pine St Guthrie, OK	4.0	1.0	1272	$1,400	$1.10	1d	1	1.22mi
1221 Colt Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,645	$1.57	3d	1	1.27mi
1201 Stallion Dr Guthrie, OK	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,000	$1.37	11d	1	1.29mi
101 Harvest Rd Unit 114H Guthrie, OK	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,444	$0.95	1d	1	1.33mi
101 Harvest Rd Unit 109H Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,303	$0.99	1d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $105,000 Active
16. 2007-12-19
    historical
17. 2007-05-31
    historical
18. 2007-03-01
    listed $19,900
19. 2003-04-18
    soldstatus $15,000
20. 2003-04-14
    soldstatus $15,000
21. 2001-10-01
    listed $20,000
22. 2001-02-01
    listed $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 102.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $5,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $5,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, OK
• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+281.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $105,000 MLSOK
• 2007-12-19 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2007-05-31 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2007-03-01 Listed $19,900 MLSOK
• 2003-04-18 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MLSOK
• 2003-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-01 Listed $20,000 MLSOK
• 2001-02-01 Listed $27,500 MLSOK

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $435 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.