14765 Old Houston Rd · Grangerland, TX 77302

$265,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2014 0.57 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come look at this wonderful 4 bedroom 3 bath double wide manufactured home that sits on an UNRESTRICTED half acre . Fully fenced and with three storage units. Wonderful gazebo and garden area. Big back yard. Seller will need a six month lease back. If measurements are important please check measurements. Measurements are approximate.

Key facts

• Treated pine floors
• Fully fenced
• Large backyard

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• FULLY FENCED
• ENTRY GATE
• CUSTOM PORCH ADDITION
• TREATED PINE FLOORS
• NATURAL CEDAR TRIM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport (1 space)
• Security: Gated with attendant; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with generator
• Home design: Residential property; One-story layout; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2014; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Fully fenced yard; Patio; Private yard; Storage shed(s); Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Pantry; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,144 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-22,369
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $8,938
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,774/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $387	+0% $312	+5% $237	+10% $162
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $214	+0% $312	+5% $410	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $380	base $312	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	45d	1	0.56mi
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.75mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Pending 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Pending 14 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Pending 13 DOM
5. 2026-05-18
   listed $265,000 Active
6. 2021-11-22
   soldstatus
7. 2021-11-12
   soldstatus Sold 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Come look at this wonderful 4 bedroom 3 bath double wide manufactured home that sits on an UNRESTRICTED half acre . Fully fenced and with three storage units. Wonderful gazebo and garden area. Big back yard. Seller will need a six month lease back. If measurements are important please check measurements. Measurements are approximate.

8. 2021-09-19
   status Pending 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Come look at this wonderful 4 bedroom 3 bath double wide manufactured home that sits on an UNRESTRICTED half acre . Fully fenced and with three storage units. Wonderful gazebo and garden area. Big back yard. Seller will need a six month lease back. If measurements are important please check measurements. Measurements are approximate.

9. 2021-09-12
   status Option Pending 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Come look at this wonderful 4 bedroom 3 bath double wide manufactured home that sits on an UNRESTRICTED half acre . Fully fenced and with three storage units. Wonderful gazebo and garden area. Big back yard. Seller will need a six month lease back. If measurements are important please check measurements. Measurements are approximate.

10. 2021-07-19
    listed $220,000 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Come look at this wonderful 4 bedroom 3 bath double wide manufactured home that sits on an UNRESTRICTED half acre . Fully fenced and with three storage units. Wonderful gazebo and garden area. Big back yard. Seller will need a six month lease back. If measurements are important please check measurements. Measurements are approximate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,774 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,075/yr (+$256/mo · 173.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,774
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,382
• − Management: −$2,382
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$153
• After-tax cash flow: $3,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+20.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-09-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-19 Listed $220,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+47.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,774 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.