312 E Pino St · San Juan, TX 78589

$60,750

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 246 Days on market

Built 2000 3,937 sqft lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is currently leased. Do not disturb tenants. No sign on property per seller. Showings will be scheduled with accepted offer. Seller prefers to sell all 7 properties as a bundle package: 1. 306 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 92 - Amended 2. 308 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 93 - Amended 3. 310 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 94 - Amended 4. 312 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 95 - Amended 5. 305 E. Salazar Dr. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 101 - Amended 6. 309 E. Salazar St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 99 - Amended 7. 311 E. Salazar St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 99 - Amended

Key facts

• 3,937 sq ft lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 246 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $61k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $61k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $420 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,460 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.25%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $28,328
• Equity at exit: $9,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $73,896
• Equity at exit: $5,253

Cash invested: $17,010 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$319
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $546

Max offer price $60,750

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,188
• Closing costs: $1,822
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1109 Del Monte Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	989	$1,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.21mi
204 E Gomez Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	1.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	14d	1	0.32mi
103 E Segment Leonel Trevino Rd Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	962	$1,075	$1.12	44d	1	0.39mi
418 Chula Vista Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,600	$1.16	44d	1	0.42mi
300 W Amy Dr Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$995	$1.04	44d	1	0.58mi
234 W Jaime St San Juan, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	23d	1	0.79mi
1809 N Mangrove St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,950	$1.40	19d	1	0.97mi
203 Encino Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	23d	1	1.01mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	1.09mi
221 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	44d	1	1.11mi
400 Rafael Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,100	$1.14	21d	1	1.16mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,080	$1.03	44d	1	1.16mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,270	$1.22	23d	1	1.16mi
405 Rafael Dr Apt 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	1.18mi
1106 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	44d	1	1.21mi
1108 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	1.0	1.0	708	$875	$1.24	44d	1	1.23mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	1.37mi
1309 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	44d	1	1.37mi
1305 Valle Vista St Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	44d	1	1.39mi
404 N Cesar Chavez Rd Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	783	$1,079	$1.38	44d	2	1.43mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 2 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,750 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,750 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,750 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,750 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,750 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,750 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,750 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,750 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,750 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,750 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,750 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,750 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,750 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,750 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,750 Active 227 DOM
16. 2025-10-13
    listed $60,750 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Property is currently leased. Do not disturb tenants. No sign on property per seller. Showings will be scheduled with accepted offer. Seller prefers to sell all 7 properties as a bundle package: 1. 306 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 92 - Amended 2. 308 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 93 - Amended 3. 310 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 94 - Amended 4. 312 E. Pino St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 95 - Amended 5. 305 E. Salazar Dr. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 101 - Amended 6. 309 E. Salazar St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 99 - Amended 7. 311 E. Salazar St. - Santa Fe Manufactured Home Lot 99 - Amended

17. 2024-08-19
    status Active
18. 2024-08-07
    historical Option
19. 2024-08-01
    listed $68,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$58/yr (+$5/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,403
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$304
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$1,767
• Taxable income: $6,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $5,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Listed $60,750 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-19 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-07 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-01 Listed $68,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.