4233 Seminole Trl · Bagdad, FL 32583

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1999 0.51 ac lot Est $252k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Half acre! NO HOA! Welcome home to this recently remodeled split ranch, featuring granite countertops, tile floors, and updated lighting. This home also boasts a new 30-year dimensional shingle roof, new AC handler, new LVP, and fresh paint. There is also a fenced area for dogs, wooded area, rear shed and lots of mature plants and trees. Santa Rosa County schools and plenty of space to add a pool or store the boat!

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) with front entrance; 1 covered parking space (total 1 parking space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electric panel; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Insulation and insulated walls with ridge vent
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Back yard fencing; Yard building/outbuilding; Paved, county-maintained road access; Central access to lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with granite countertops; Refinished cabinetry; Tile flooring in kitchen; Includes dishwasher and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13' x 12.7'); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 11.3' x 10.9' and 11.3' x 9.6')
• Flooring: Tile and carpet; See remarks for additional details
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Tile and carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,724 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,505
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6333 Rice St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,215 (0%)	4mo	$250,000	$206	86
4281 Tomahawk Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+12%)	8mo	$215,000	$159	67
6257 Mohawk Trl	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,356 (+12%)	11mo	$214,999	$159	65
6361 Firefly Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-1%)	10mo	$249,900	$207	62
6349 Firefly Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-1%)	9mo	$250,000	$207	61
6353 Firefly Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-1%)	10mo	$249,900	$207	61
6333 Firefly Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-1%)	9mo	$254,900	$212	60
6325 Firefly Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-1%)	11mo	$251,900	$209	57
6309 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-1%)	12mo	$252,400	$209	55
6301 Firefly Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-1%)	12mo	$249,900	$207	54
4380 Glen Forest Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+12%)	10mo	$256,500	$188	53
6309 Matador St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	8mo	$205,000	$180	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,510
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-34,518
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,513/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,987

Max offer price $238,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-22	+0% $-94	+5% $-167	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-168	+0% $-94	+5% $-21	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-30	base $-94	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	22d	1	0.72mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	24d	1	0.76mi
4355 Park Ct Trlr Park , FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	24d	1	0.92mi
4389 Park Ct Trlr Park , FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $255,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,513
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,360
• After-tax cash flow: $227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+264.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $255,000 PARMLS
• 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $235,000 PARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Pending — PARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $250,000 PARMLS
• 2023-11-05 Pending — PARMLS
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $243,500 PARMLS
• 2023-10-21 Price Changed $249,977 PARMLS
• 2023-10-10 Price Changed $254,000 PARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Listed $259,000 PARMLS
• 2023-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-25 Sold (MLS) $205,000 PARMLS
• 2023-08-04 Pending — PARMLS
• 2023-08-02 Listed $199,500 PARMLS
• 1999-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,513 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.