115 Oak Springs Loop · Mabank, TX 75147

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 239 Days on market

Built 2019 10,019 sqft lot $144/sqft · 13% below area Est $277k · 13% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Highly Motivated Seller! Spring Creek Estates community in Mabank. 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this open-concept layout offers a welcoming living room, a cozy breakfast nook, and a kitchen with ample counter and storage space for living and enjoying life. The primary suite features a generous bathroom complete with a walk-in shower, dual sinks, and a walk-in closet. Includes a two-car garage and off street parking. Minutes from grocery stores, shopping, dining and the highly-rated Mabank ISD schools.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-976/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,203/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 279% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,031
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -13.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Willowbend Loop	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	1mo	$255,000	$157	87
212 W Mcafee St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (+0%)	1mo	$243,000	$145	78
312 W Mcafee Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (-1%)	1mo	$289,000	$175	78
121 Willowbend Loop	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	8mo	$263,000	$162	76
314 W James St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (-9%)	1mo	$289,000	$190	67
314 W Alene Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-6%)	2mo	$289,900	$184	67
123 Oak Springs Loop	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-13%)	6mo	$245,000	$169	66
300 W Mcafee St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (+14%)	0mo	$319,000	$167	56
211 W Mcafee Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,438 (-14%)	2mo	$209,000	$145	56
293 Victory Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (-4%)	2mo	$174,990	$109	50
289 Victory Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,510 (-10%)	4mo	$188,090	$125	47
305 Victory Dr	0.75mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (+8%)	5mo	$197,496	$109	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $137,306
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $437,518
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75147

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$463 /mo · $5,553/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $225,639

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Spring Crest St Mabank, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1750	$2,598	$1.48	1d	1	0.21mi
813 S Sutton St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,399	$1.17	43d	1	0.88mi
414 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,564	$1.11	43d	1	0.91mi
425 Shorty St Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,614	$0.90	43d	1	0.96mi
430 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,614	$1.03	43d	1	0.97mi
427 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	43d	1	0.97mi
429 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,499	$1.07	43d	1	0.98mi
433 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	43d	1	0.99mi
471 Bobbie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	43d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 219 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $240,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Highly Motivated Seller! Spring Creek Estates community in Mabank. 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this open-concept layout offers a welcoming living room, a cozy breakfast nook, and a kitchen with ample counter and storage space for living and enjoying life. The primary suite features a generous bathroom complete with a walk-in shower, dual sinks, and a walk-in closet. Includes a two-car garage and off street parking. Minutes from grocery stores, shopping, dining and the highly-rated Mabank ISD schools.

18. 2026-02-21
    price $270,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Highly Motivated Seller! Spring Creek Estates community in Mabank. 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this open-concept layout offers a welcoming living room, a cozy breakfast nook, and a kitchen with ample counter and storage space for living and enjoying life. The primary suite features a generous bathroom complete with a walk-in shower, dual sinks, and a walk-in closet. Includes a two-car garage and off street parking. Minutes from grocery stores, shopping, dining and the highly-rated Mabank ISD schools.

19. 2026-01-10
    historical $1,600
20. 2025-12-11
    price $1,600
21. 2025-12-09
    price $275,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Highly Motivated Seller! Spring Creek Estates community in Mabank. 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this open-concept layout offers a welcoming living room, a cozy breakfast nook, and a kitchen with ample counter and storage space for living and enjoying life. The primary suite features a generous bathroom complete with a walk-in shower, dual sinks, and a walk-in closet. Includes a two-car garage and off street parking. Minutes from grocery stores, shopping, dining and the highly-rated Mabank ISD schools.

22. 2025-12-02
    price $1,700
23. 2025-11-06
    price $1,800
24. 2025-10-22
    listed $280,000 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Highly Motivated Seller! Spring Creek Estates community in Mabank. 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this open-concept layout offers a welcoming living room, a cozy breakfast nook, and a kitchen with ample counter and storage space for living and enjoying life. The primary suite features a generous bathroom complete with a walk-in shower, dual sinks, and a walk-in closet. Includes a two-car garage and off street parking. Minutes from grocery stores, shopping, dining and the highly-rated Mabank ISD schools.

25. 2025-09-26
    listed $1,900
26. 2025-08-09
    historical $1,900
27. 2025-07-28
    historical
28. 2025-07-15
    listed $1,900
29. 2025-04-29
    price $275,000
30. 2025-02-26
    listed $280,000 Active
31. 2024-10-31
    soldstatus Closed
32. 2024-10-31
    soldstatus Closed
33. 2024-10-31
    soldstatus
34. 2024-10-18
    historical
35. 2024-10-18
    status Pending
36. 2024-10-14
    status Active
37. 2024-10-14
    historical Active Option Contract
38. 2024-08-08
    listed $284,900 Active
39. 2024-08-08
    listed $284,900 Active
40. 2024-08-06
    historical
41. 2024-05-30
    listed $284,900 Active
42. 2024-05-30
    listed $284,900 Active
43. 2024-05-28
    historical
44. 2024-03-19
    listed $289,000 Active
45. 2024-03-19
    listed $289,000 Active
46. 2019-04-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,553 · $463/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,553 · $463/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$5,553
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mabank, TX
• County: Van Zandt County · 9,177 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,177
• Household income: $56,940
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 254.32
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Rental Removed $1,600 NTREIS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $1,600 NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $1,700 NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $1,800 NTREIS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $1,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-09 Rental Removed $1,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-15 Listed for Rent $1,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2024-10-18 Delisted — HCBOR
• 2024-10-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-10-14 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-10-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $284,900 NTREIS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $284,900 HCBOR
• 2024-08-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $284,900 HCBOR
• 2024-05-30 Listed $284,900 NTREIS
• 2024-05-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-19 Listed $289,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-19 Listed $289,000 HCBOR
• 2019-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+80.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,553 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.