33 Timothy Way · Mills River, NC 28768

$77,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1971 0.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this rare investment opportunity! Situated on a spacious 0.50-acre lot, this 2-story home is a tear-down and is being sold strictly AS-IS, offering a blank canvas for builders, developers, investors, or buyers looking to create their dream home from the ground up. The generous lot provides ample space for new construction, outdoor living areas, additional structures (subject to local zoning regulations), or a complete redevelopment project. With plenty of room to bring your vision to life, this property presents endless possibilities. Whether you're looking to build a custom residence, add to your investment portfolio, or secure land in a growing area, this property

Key facts

• Easy access
• Blank canvas
• Spacious lot

Tags

• 0.50-ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• BLANK CANVAS
• ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Use GPS
• HOA & community: No HOA; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Utilities: Septic system installed; No public water listed
• Home design: Single family residence (site built); Two levels; Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood construction
• Exterior features: 0.55-acre lot; Road surfaces include dirt and concrete; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One room count; Wood construction interior elements; Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry described as 'Other - See Remarks'

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $862 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 2.3% in Mills River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#253 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Transylvania County Schools (town): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #79 of 178 in NC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Transylvania County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Transylvania County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $77,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.97%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $42,387
• Equity at exit: $11,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $107,484
• Equity at exit: $6,658

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28768

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $162/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $862

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $905	-5% $884	+0% $862	+5% $840	+10% $726
Rent	-10% $731	-5% $796	+0% $862	+5% $927	+10% $993
Rate	-1.0pp $901	-0.5pp $881	base $862	+0.5pp $842	+1.0pp $822

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $77,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $77,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $77,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-03
    listed $77,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $162 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $631 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 289.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$162
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $9,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $8,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Transylvania County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704530
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,365
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3938
• State rank: #79 of 178 in NC

Livability — Mills River

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #11185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,555
• Population (ZIP): 6,836

Population outlook (Transylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,142 people
• By 2030: 32,987 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 32,159 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 30,937 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 27,778 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 24,136 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Transylvania

• 2024 margin: R (+12.2) · D 43.3% · R 55.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.2 2020: R+15.7 2016: R+22.5 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.50%
• Current HPI: 237.1205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $77,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $162 · -26.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.