261 Elm Rd W · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$425,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1930 9,148 sqft lot Est $522k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step into classic 1930s character with this delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in the heart of Mastic Beach. Offering four comfortable rooms, this home is perfect for first-time buyers, right-sizers, or anyone looking to add their personal touch. Features include a crawl space basement with convenient Bilco door access, and a detached 2-car garage—ideal for storage, a workshop, or additional parking. Located just minutes from local amenities, scenic parks, marinas and beautiful beaches, this property offers both comfort and convenience. Don’t miss this great opportunity to make a charming home your very own!

Key facts

• Crawl space basement
• Bilco door access
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• CRAWL SPACE BASEMENT
• BILCO DOOR ACCESS
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John S Hobart Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 798 students, 58% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.27%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $521,700
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
261 Elm Rd W	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,850 (0%)	1mo	$418,000	$226	99
161 Parkview Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (-4%)	13mo	$500,000	$282	41
94 Arpage Dr E	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,983 (+7%)	7mo	$550,000	$277	38
97 Overlook Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (-13%)	9mo	$480,000	$297	32
5 Waverly Rd	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+8%)	14mo	$570,000	$285	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $264,697
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $753,192
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,006/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,468

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $763	-5% $643	+0% $523	+5% $402	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $360	+0% $523	+5% $686	+10% $849
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $631	base $523	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	0d	1	0.33mi
126 Trafalgar Dr Shirley, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$4,500	$2.14	0d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   status Active
3. 2026-03-12
   historical
4. 2026-03-11
   status Active
5. 2025-11-10
   status Pending
6. 2025-09-11
   historical
7. 2025-07-22
   listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,006 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,594 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,588/yr (+$132/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$4,006
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,964
• − Management: −$3,964
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$162
• After-tax cash flow: $6,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,006 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.