301 Bemis Rd · Mayfield, NY 12078

$240,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1979 0.83 ac lot $200/sqft · 18% below area Est $291k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You can move right into this well maintained ranch in the sought after Mayfield area. Clean & bright with an open living area. Large eat in kitchen with pantry and laundry room. Formal dining, living room with pellet stove...very efficient. 2 bedrooms, full bath plus partial bath coming in from garage & back door. The garage has plenty of room and the lower level basement has room for expansion...previously a large family room...needs some updating. Very Good Condition

Key facts

• Quiet road
• Recent updates
• Extra storage

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• QUIET ROAD
• MAYFIELD SCHOOL DISTRICT
• RECENT UPDATES
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• EXTRA STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Space for up to 6 vehicles total
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1,200 living area
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Full basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric heating; Oil heating; Pellet stove supplemental heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pellet stove; Water softener; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer/Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-688 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (50.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (48.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (50.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#634 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayfield Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #400 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield Elementary School (math 36% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,177 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 430 students, 0% FRL); Mayfield Jr/Sr High School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 400 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $240k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $118,486 (50.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.28%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,000
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -17.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $86,929
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $290,499
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12078

• Home prices YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,789/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $118,486

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-552	-5% $-620	+0% $-688	+5% $-756	+10% $-824
Rent	-10% $-787	-5% $-737	+0% $-688	+5% $-639	+10% $-589
Rate	-1.0pp $-567	-0.5pp $-627	base $-688	+0.5pp $-750	+1.0pp $-813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $240,000 Active 489-char remark
2. 2016-07-20
   soldstatus $135,000
3. 2016-07-01
   soldstatus $135,000 Closed (Final Sale) 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   You can move right into this well maintained ranch in the sought after Mayfield area. Clean & bright with an open living area. Large eat in kitchen with pantry and laundry room. Formal dining, living room with pellet stove...very efficient. 2 bedrooms, full bath plus partial bath coming in from garage & back door. The garage has plenty of room and the lower level basement has room for expansion...previously a large family room...needs some updating. Very Good Condition

4. 2016-05-12
   status Pend (Under Cntr) 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   You can move right into this well maintained ranch in the sought after Mayfield area. Clean & bright with an open living area. Large eat in kitchen with pantry and laundry room. Formal dining, living room with pellet stove...very efficient. 2 bedrooms, full bath plus partial bath coming in from garage & back door. The garage has plenty of room and the lower level basement has room for expansion...previously a large family room...needs some updating. Very Good Condition

5. 2016-03-28
   listed $145,000 New 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   You can move right into this well maintained ranch in the sought after Mayfield area. Clean & bright with an open living area. Large eat in kitchen with pantry and laundry room. Formal dining, living room with pellet stove...very efficient. 2 bedrooms, full bath plus partial bath coming in from garage & back door. The garage has plenty of room and the lower level basement has room for expansion...previously a large family room...needs some updating. Very Good Condition

6. 2005-10-17
   soldstatus $102,000
7. 1999-07-27
   soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,789 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,922 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: +$134/yr (+$11/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,789
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$12,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,079
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618750
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,922
• Composite: 42.08/100
• National rank: #3322
• State rank: #400 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mayfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #634
• US rank: #11697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,087

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.22%
• Current HPI: 315.1368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+215.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $240,000 Global MLS
• 2016-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-01 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Global MLS
• 2016-05-12 Pending — Global MLS
• 2016-03-28 Listed $145,000 Global MLS
• 2005-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,789 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.