138 Briarwood Ln · Advance, NC 27006

$329,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · Townhouse · 75 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot $135/sqft · 7% below area Est $354k · 7% under $180/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Linville’s stunning layout features a spacious guest suite with an adjoining full bath and walk-in shower on the main level! Upstairs, retreat to the luxurious primary suite showcasing a generously sized walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath—your private oasis for relaxation! Additional highlights of the home include a versatile loft area for flexible living space, an open-concept kitchen and dining area ideal for entertaining, ample closet and storage areas and an attached 2 car garage.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite
• Spa-inspired bath

Tags

• GUEST SUITE
• FULL BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $329k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-764 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.5% in Advance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#215 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Davie County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #57 of 178 in NC (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Grove Elementary (math 66% / reading 73%, grade A-, #95 of 1,410 statewide, top 7%, 514 students, 23% FRL); William Ellis Middle (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #87 of 475 statewide, top 19%, 452 students, 31% FRL); Davie County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,770 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 250 units permitted in Davie County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davie County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,828 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.96%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,500
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -6.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Briarwood Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,438 (-0%)	0mo	$338,000	$139	100
135 Briarwood Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,438 (-0%)	1mo	$329,000	$135	99
151 Briarwood Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,438 (-0%)	0mo	$329,000	$135	98
131 Briarwood Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,438 (-0%)	5mo	$361,000	$148	96
112 Lemongrass Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,438 (-0%)	3mo	$358,000	$147	89
108 Lemongrass Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,438 (-0%)	3mo	$361,500	$148	89
139 Briarwood Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-8%)	2mo	$354,000	$158	83
145 Briarwood Ln	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-8%)	2mo	$353,000	$158	83
153 Briarwood Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-8%)	2mo	$361,500	$161	82
129 Briarwood Ln	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-8%)	3mo	$375,000	$167	81
120 Lemongrass Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-8%)	3mo	$359,000	$160	81
127 Warwicke Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,283 (-6%)	0mo	$465,000	$204	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-101,855
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-150,803
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.7 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $324,000 ($142/sqft)
• Median days on market: 128 d
• This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27006

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,106

Max offer price $218,390

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-537	-5% $-651	+0% $-764	+5% $-878	+10% $-992
Rent	-10% $-933	-5% $-849	+0% $-764	+5% $-680	+10% $-595
Rate	-1.0pp $-599	-0.5pp $-681	base $-764	+0.5pp $-850	+1.0pp $-936

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Span Ln Advance, NC	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,725	$1.05	109d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $329,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $329,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $329,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $329,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $329,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $329,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $329,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $329,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $329,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $329,000 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $329,000 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $329,000 Active 49 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $329,000 Active 48 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $329,000 Active 47 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $329,000 Active 46 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $329,000 Active 45 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $329,000 Active 44 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $329,000 Active 43 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $329,000 Active 42 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    price $329,000 Active 41 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $339,000 Active 41 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $339,000 Active 40 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $339,000 Active 39 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $339,000 Active 38 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $339,000 Active 37 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $339,000 Active 36 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $339,000 Active 35 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $339,000 Active 34 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $339,000 Active 33 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $339,000 Active 32 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $339,000 Active 31 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $339,000 Active 30 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $339,000 Active 29 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 28 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $339,000 Active 27 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $339,000 Active 26 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 25 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 24 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 21 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $339,000 Active 20 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $339,000 Active 19 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $339,000 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$15,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,645
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old carpet with tile or hardwood can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shady Grove Elementary A- NC #95/1,410 Nat'l #3,487/41,679 Middle William Ellis Middle C+ NC #87/475 Nat'l #2,785/14,009 High Davie County High B- NC #184/535 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davie County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701170
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,331
• Composite: 44.16/100
• National rank: #2860
• State rank: #57 of 178 in NC

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Advance

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #10250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Davie County · 42,613 people
• City population: 16,247
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• Population (ZIP): 16,247
• Household income: $96,580
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Davie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,613 people
• By 2030: 42,691 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 42,137 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 40,445 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 35,939 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 29,103 · -31.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Davie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.5) · D 26.2% · R 72.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -46.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.5 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.1 2012: R+43.7 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.92%
• Current HPI: 179.445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $369,275 Triad MLS