38625 County Line Rd · Crystal Springs, FL 33540

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 1974 Poor condition 0.99 ac lot Est $109k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a peaceful and private . 99-acre lot, this property offers an excellent opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something new. The existing home is not considered safe to enter and is being sold for land value only, Surrounded by tranquil scenery and tucked away from the hustle and bustle, this property provided the perfect setting for a future homesite, or investment project. With nearly an acre of land and endless potential, this is a rare chance to own a secluded piece of property in a quiet area. There is an additional parcel for sale TB8513439 parcel 35-26-21-0010-062B0-0000 right next door with 4.01 acres that can be purchased together or separatel

Key facts

• Tranquil scenery
• Quiet area
• 0.99 acre lot

Tags

• PEACEFUL AND PRIVATE LOT
• TRANQUIL SCENERY
• SECLUDED PIECE OF PROPERTY
• QUIET AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.99 acres (about 1/2 to less than 1 acre); Dirt road access

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential double wide mobile home; One story; Faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding and other construction materials; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built using double wide mobile home construction
• Exterior features: French doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Crystal Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#687 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,864
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39034 Central Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0	924 (+7%)	11mo	$116,000	$126	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,643
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $12,711
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Gut rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and development to be suitable for resale or rental. Significant land value and potential improvements can be realized with proper planning and execution.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof structure
• Major exterior — No visible siding or paint
• Major interior walls — No visible interior walls or paint
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen
• Major systems — No visible HVAC or mechanical systems
• Major windows — No visible windows
• Major foundation/structure — No visible foundation or structure
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping or curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both land development — Potential for significant land value increase
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances property's visual appeal and value
• Both foundation and structural repairs — Stabilizes the property and increases its value
• Both roof and exterior repairs — Improves the property's appearance and value
• Both interior repairs and updates — Enhances the property's livability and value
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, increasing value
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Enhances functionality and value
• Both windows and exterior doors — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible siding or paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · No visible interior walls or paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible HVAC or mechanical systems	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No visible foundation or structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping or curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both land development — Potential for significant land value increase ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances property's visual appeal and value ↑
• Both foundation and structural repairs — Stabilizes the property and increases its value ↑
• Both roof and exterior repairs — Improves the property's appearance and value ↑
• Both interior repairs and updates — Enhances the property's livability and value ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, increasing value ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Enhances functionality and value ↑
• Both windows and exterior doors — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #14320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,098

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid