78 Arnold St · Buffalo, NY 14213

$235,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,482 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1881 Est $246k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Excellent value on a 2-unit with upper (3 BR) and lower (2BR), with off-street parking and extra side lot! Vinyl sided (2018) and tear-off roof (2018). Upper unit has gorgeous hardwood floors. Upper and lower porches. Long-term tenants! Great investment!

Key facts

• Vinyl sided
• Extra side lot
• Tear-off roof

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING
• EXTRA SIDE LOT
• VINYL SIDED
• TEAR-OFF ROOF
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPPER AND LOWER PORCHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial or community details provided
• Financial info: Financial details not specified
• HOA & community: HOA and community fee details not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Utilities details not specified
• Home design: Single property (specific type and number of stories not specified); Built in 1881
• Construction: 2482 living area (size provided)
• Exterior features: Located in the Grant Ferry subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not specified
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: Bathrooms not specified
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not specified
• Interior features: Built in 1881 (historic character)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry and utility details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $909 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $454/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,891/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1881 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $231,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1881 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.57%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,718
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
395 Hampshire St	0.10mi	5/2.0	2,438 (-2%)	3mo	$165,500	$68	90
67 Barton St	0.37mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,420 (-2%)	0mo	$170,000	$70	73
207 Rhode Island St	0.63mi	5/2.0	2,436 (-2%)	2mo	$295,500	$121	66
298 Massachusetts Ave	0.37mi	5/2.0	2,221 (-10%)	1mo	$220,000	$99	65
440 W Utica St Unit S	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,371 (-4%)	0mo	$380,000	$160	63
315 Herkimer St	0.43mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,303 (-7%)	2mo	$148,000	$64	61
448 W Delavan Ave	0.48mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,477 (-0%)	3mo	$488,750	$197	60
288 14th St	0.57mi	5/2.0	2,616 (+5%)	6mo	$260,000	$99	60
238 Barton St	0.41mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,246 (-10%)	2mo	$195,000	$87	59
38 Ardmore Pl	0.40mi	5/2.0	2,121 (-14%)	6mo	$230,000	$108	52
234 Dewitt St	0.62mi	5/3.0	2,120 (-15%)	2mo	$59,000	$28	41
375 Plymouth Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-14%)	4mo	$265,000	$125	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $138,826
• Equity at exit: $170,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $343,988
• Equity at exit: $331,889

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $538/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $909

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 64%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,892
Total (2 units)			$2,891

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Hoyt St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2848	$1,775	$0.62	14d	1	0.02mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	23d	1	0.18mi
184 14th St Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$4,400	$2.26	23d	1	0.70mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	43d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,717/yr (+$143/mo · 319.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$538
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,775
• − Management: −$2,775
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $7,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,783
• After-tax cash flow: $9,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $235,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+26.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $538 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.