85 Vance Ave · Black Mountain, NC 28711

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2005 0.48 ac lot $231/sqft · 28% below area Est $483k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just a short walk to the heart of downtown Black Mountain, this spacious 2005 double-wide offers comfort, character, and convenience on nearly half an acre. Featuring over 1,500 square feet, the home includes three bedrooms and two baths, a welcoming family room with a wood-burning fireplace, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy living room just off the primary bedroom—perfect for a private retreat, office, or sitting area. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, new hot water heater, and new flooring throughout, providing peace of mind and modern comfort. Step outside to enjoy the large covered front porch, ideal for relaxing and taking in the mountain air. The gently sloping property includes multiple outbuildings and unique multi-level stonework sourced from the historic Black Mountain Inn, adding timeless character and a story you won’t find anywhere else. An excellent opportunity for full-time living, a mountain getaway, or an investment—this home combines space, history, and one of Black Mountain’s most walkable locations.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 5 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Black Mountain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#2 in NC, #297 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+.
• Buncombe County Schools (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #72 of 178 in NC (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,305 units permitted in Buncombe County in 2024 (1,855 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buncombe County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $349k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $217,031 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $482,737
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -27.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-80,329
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-101,031
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28711

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,315/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,640

Max offer price $283,519

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-272	+0% $-371	+5% $-469	+10% $-568
Rent	-10% $-542	-5% $-456	+0% $-371	+5% $-285	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-282	base $-371	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Hiawassee Ave Black Mountain, NC	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,995	$1.74	14d	1	0.55mi
106 Louisa St Black Mountain, NC	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	0.64mi
88 Atkins Dr Black Mountain, NC	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,200	$1.56	14d	1	0.84mi
9th St Black Mountain, NC	2.0	2.0	1228	$2,200	$1.79	21d	1	0.87mi
34 Fortune St Black Mountain, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	14d	1	1.00mi
829 Montreat Rd Black Mountain, NC	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,275	$2.01	24d	1	1.07mi
15 Asa Ct Black Mountain, NC	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,950	$1.29	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-02-06
    listed $349,000 Active 1072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1072 chars)

    Just a short walk to the heart of downtown Black Mountain, this spacious 2005 double-wide offers comfort, character, and convenience on nearly half an acre. Featuring over 1,500 square feet, the home includes three bedrooms and two baths, a welcoming family room with a wood-burning fireplace, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy living room just off the primary bedroom—perfect for a private retreat, office, or sitting area. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, new hot water heater, and new flooring throughout, providing peace of mind and modern comfort. Step outside to enjoy the large covered front porch, ideal for relaxing and taking in the mountain air. The gently sloping property includes multiple outbuildings and unique multi-level stonework sourced from the historic Black Mountain Inn, adding timeless character and a story you won’t find anywhere else. An excellent opportunity for full-time living, a mountain getaway, or an investment—this home combines space, history, and one of Black Mountain’s most walkable locations.

16. 2026-02-04
    historical $349,000 1072-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1072 chars)

    Just a short walk to the heart of downtown Black Mountain, this spacious 2005 double-wide offers comfort, character, and convenience on nearly half an acre. Featuring over 1,500 square feet, the home includes three bedrooms and two baths, a welcoming family room with a wood-burning fireplace, a dedicated dining area, and a cozy living room just off the primary bedroom—perfect for a private retreat, office, or sitting area. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, new hot water heater, and new flooring throughout, providing peace of mind and modern comfort. Step outside to enjoy the large covered front porch, ideal for relaxing and taking in the mountain air. The gently sloping property includes multiple outbuildings and unique multi-level stonework sourced from the historic Black Mountain Inn, adding timeless character and a story you won’t find anywhere else. An excellent opportunity for full-time living, a mountain getaway, or an investment—this home combines space, history, and one of Black Mountain’s most walkable locations.

17. 2011-04-01
    soldstatus $74,000
18. 1999-11-05
    soldstatus $40,000
19. 1999-11-05
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,315 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,862 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,547/yr (+$129/mo · 117.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥94°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$1,315
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$10,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buncombe County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,981
• Composite: 40.32/100
• National rank: #3749
• State rank: #72 of 178 in NC

Livability — Black Mountain

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #297

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Mountain, NC
• County: Buncombe County · 241,085 people
• City population: 12,663
• Metro: Asheville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,663
• Household income: $74,761
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 556.0

Population outlook (Buncombe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,475 people
• By 2030: 302,237 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 330,687 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 356,370 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 409,383 · +42.9%
• By 2100: 437,270 · +52.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buncombe

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.8) · D 61.7% · R 36.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.9pp toward D · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 24.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.8 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+14.6 2012: D+12.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.20%
• Current HPI: 314.8029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Asheville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+772.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $349,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Coming Soon $349,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,315 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.