1026 Capella Dr · Tavares, FL 32778

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1972 6,000 sqft lot Est $162k · 7% under $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in Lake Frances Estates, a vibrant 55+ community where you own your own land. Featuring a spacious primary suite with en suite bath, plus a second bedroom and full bath for guests, this home offers comfort, functionality, and room to enjoy. Double-pane windows provide energy efficiency, while the expansive kitchen with walk-in pantry offers abundant storage and workspace for everyday living or entertaining. Move-in ready and easy to maintain, this home also features a durable metal roof for long-lasting protection. The oversized backyard shed with electricity provides excellent space for hobbies, storage, or workshop use. Mature landscaping adds c

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished: Negotiable
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $52; total annual fees listed as $624
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee: $52 (includes common area taxes, pool, management, private road, recreational facilities); Community amenities: Pool, clubhouse, recreation facilities; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-car carport; Garage (16x12)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Sewer available/connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch; Awning(s); Shed(s); Mature landscaping with oak trees; Cleared and landscaped lot; Near public transit; Paved driveway and roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Drapes; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $150k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.10%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,568
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1024 Capella Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	4mo	$55,000	$50	88
1424 Mohawk Cir	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+10%)	2mo	$195,000	$168	70
1209 Apache Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	9mo	$128,000	$111	69
1408 Skyline Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+8%)	8mo	$92,000	$80	67
1687 Elkhart Cir	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	6mo	$160,000	$160	64
1681 Elkhart Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,125 (+6%)	7mo	$172,000	$153	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,336
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $27,439
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,200/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $326	+0% $283	+5% $241	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $215	+0% $283	+5% $352	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $322	base $283	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1105 N Rockingham Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	806	$1,650	$2.05	5d	1	0.31mi
807 McLain Ct Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	17d	1	0.32mi
542 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,400	$1.72	24d	1	0.48mi
743 E Alfred St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	0.51mi
380 Dora Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,399	$1.87	15d	1	0.53mi
1403 E Alfred St Unit 200 Tavares, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,000	$2.00	18d	1	0.76mi
1632 Tudor Ln Unit 1632 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,595	$1.52	18d	1	0.80mi
2225 Cypress Ct Unit 2C Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,000	$1.50	24d	1	0.83mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	1.09mi
2420 Ann Rou Rd Unit 201 Tavares, FL	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,555	$1.55	18d	1	1.33mi
2460 Ann Rou Rd Unit 606 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,750	$1.50	18d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscaping

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    listed $149,900 Active
15. 2026-04-15
    historical
16. 2026-04-12
    price $152,000
17. 2026-03-29
    price $157,000
18. 2026-03-12
    price $159,000
19. 2026-02-13
    price $162,500
20. 2026-02-07
    price $167,000
21. 2026-02-07
    price $16,700
22. 2026-01-26
    status Active
23. 2026-01-26
    historical
24. 2026-01-15
    listed $170,000 Active
25. 2026-01-13
    historical
26. 2025-12-26
    price $168,900
27. 2025-12-26
    price $168,500
28. 2025-09-26
    price $175,000
29. 2025-09-19
    price $180,000
30. 2025-07-07
    price $185,000
31. 2025-04-03
    price $186,000
32. 2025-03-02
    price $190,000
33. 2025-01-21
    listed $189,000 Active
34. 2010-04-16
    soldstatus $47,000
35. 2010-04-13
    soldstatus $47,000
36. 2009-09-02
    listed $49,000
37. 2009-01-17
    historical
38. 2008-12-05
    listed $74,900
39. 2007-01-24
    soldstatus $80,000
40. 2006-08-24
    soldstatus $57,000
41. 2003-04-02
    soldstatus $46,000
42. 2000-04-04
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,200
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$268
• After-tax cash flow: $3,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+756.6% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $162,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $167,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $16,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $168,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $168,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $186,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-21 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-13 Sold (MLS) $47,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-02 Listed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-05 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,200 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.