3021 Hutchinson Rd · Duluth, MN 55811

$280,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 0.79 ac lot Est $363k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offered for the first time in years, this charming expansion bungalow has been lovingly cared for by just three owners since it was built in 1950. Situated on a rare . 79-acre lot, the property offers room to spread out while still being conveniently located near shopping, dining, and all that Duluth has to offer. The main floor features two bedrooms, a full bath, a bright living room, and an eat-in kitchen with an open dining area. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious third bedroom occupying the entire expansion level, providing flexibility for a primary suite, guest room, office, or hobby space. The full unfinished basement offers abundant storage and exciting possibilities for future expansi

Key facts

• Open dining area
• Rare lot
• Bright living room

Tags

• RARE LOT
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OPEN DINING AREA
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ABUNDANT STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to property

Exterior

• Parking: Common asphalt parking; no dedicated garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One-story home
• Construction: Full unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on the property; Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 140 and 143 x 173; Lot size about 0.79 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on main level; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space (full, unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,260/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 1019% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $280,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.60%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2893 Hutchinson Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,210 (-9%)	5mo	$369,900	$306	77
3531 Piedmont Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,226 (-8%)	10mo	$225,000	$184	68
4715 Portland Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-8%)	9mo	$333,000	$272	61
2611 Chambersburg Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,337 (+0%)	12mo	$260,000	$194	58
3928 Haines Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-7%)	2mo	$375,000	$302	53
2308 Ensign St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,370 (+2%)	13mo	$291,000	$212	52
2352 Ensign St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,276 (-4%)	12mo	$280,000	$219	50
2440 Hutchinson Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-8%)	6mo	$445,000	$362	44
3921 Haines Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (+11%)	1mo	$354,000	$238	42
3781 Alexander Rd	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (-14%)	16mo	$360,000	$314	41
1819 Anderson Rd	0.71mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,252 (-6%)	19mo	$340,000	$272	30
2610 Harvey St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	21mo	$277,000	$240	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $8,197
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $91,795
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55811

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,301

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2302 Hillcrest Dr Duluth, MN	3.0	1.5	1072	$3,500	$3.26	43d	1	1.09mi
3829 Stebner Rd Hermantown, MN	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,795	$2.37	21d	1	1.26mi
505 W Orange St Duluth, MN	3.0	1.0	1022	$3,500	$3.42	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $280,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $280,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,966 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,130
• − Management: −$3,130
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $4,839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $7,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,118
• Household income: $79,804
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.84%
• Current HPI: 198.2613
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $280,000 LSAR

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,796 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.