3821 4th Pl NW · Rochester, MN 55901

$269,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1958 8,015 sqft lot $276/sqft · 59% above area Est $316k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A nice rambler with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths in a convenient location and close to downtown of Country Club Manor. Gleaming hardwood flooring throughout the main floor that just recently was refinished. New flooring in the kitchen, new sink and faucet as well. The lower level family room, 3/4 bath, 4th bedroom or could make for a great office area with the large window overlooking the backyard completely refreshed. A door in the storage area leads to the backyard. New furnace 2023, central air in 2025, mostly all new windows throughout 2022, new driveway 2025.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New sink and faucet
• Central air

Tags

• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NEW FLOORING IN THE KITCHEN
• NEW SINK AND FAUCET
• LOWER LEVEL FAMILY ROOM
• NEW FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car); Concrete driveway
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Residential property; One level; Main level entry
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Walkout basement; Finished basement with storage space; Block foundation; City street frontage with paved streets and sidewalks; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (main floor primary)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath; Basement 3/4 bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Eat-in kitchen; Main floor primary bedroom; 3 bedrooms on one level
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Washer included; Dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (45.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (45.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Marshall Senior High (math 37% / reading 58%, grade D, #162 of 471 statewide, top 35%, 1,573 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,625 (45.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.11%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,992
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -14.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-81,521
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-123,115
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55901

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,542/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,202

Max offer price $168,600

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-421	-5% $-497	+0% $-573	+5% $-650	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-690	-5% $-632	+0% $-573	+5% $-515	+10% $-457
Rate	-1.0pp $-438	-0.5pp $-505	base $-573	+0.5pp $-643	+1.0pp $-715

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1990 Ashland Dr NW Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,410	$1.53	14d	3	1.13mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 562-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $269,900 Active 562-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,782 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 9.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,542
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$11,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,875
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 58,495
• Household income: $94,607
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.08%
• Current HPI: 253.7999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $272,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,542 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.