30 Crumley Van Vactor Rd · Mongaup Valley, NY 12734

$295,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1977 3.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 30 Crumley Van Vactor Road, Ferndale, NY 12734 a 3-bedroom, 2 bath ranch set on over 3 private acres in the heart of Bethel. This home offers incredible potential for the right buyer to make it their own. From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the cedar shake siding complemented by real stone accents, giving the home a warm, rustic Catskills feel. Inside, the open-concept living space features a beautiful stone fireplace as the centerpiece, along with wood flooring throughout. The kitchen includes a full-size side-by-side refrigerator and freezer, along with a propane stove. Additional highlights include a newer roof, updated water heater and well line, blacktop driveway

Key facts

• Cedar shake siding
• Wood flooring
• Propane stove

Tags

• CEDAR SHAKE SIDING
• STONE ACCENTS
• STONE FIREPLACE
• WOOD FLOORING
• PROPANE STOVE
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Cedar construction
• Exterior features: Cedar exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Includes bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom; Primary suite on main level; Full, partially finished basement; Crawl attic
• Laundry & utility: Basement space for utilities/laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $295k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $277,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $132,724
• Equity at exit: $220,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $374,679
• Equity at exit: $433,536

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12734

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$708 /mo · $8,497/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,010

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $313	+0% $229	+5% $146	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $99	+0% $229	+5% $359	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $304	base $229	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
277 Creamery Rd Swan Lake, NY	3.0	2.0	1314	$3,300	$2.51	25d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $295,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $295,000 Active
18. 2023-05-09
    listed $295,000 Active
19. 2007-03-23
    soldstatus $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,497 · $708/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,497 · $708/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$8,497
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$1,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mongaup Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 453
• Population (ZIP): 563

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 4% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Russian 5% Subsaharan African 4%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 515.1175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+51.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-09 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,497 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.