WAKEFIELD Plan · Weston Lakes, TX 77441

$369,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,301 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the spacious comfort of The Wakefield floor plan-a beautifully designed 2-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-bay garage. The open-concept layout offers seamless flow between the great room, kitchen, breakfast nook, and a formal dining room that can easily flex to meet your needs-perfect for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The kitchen is a standout, featuring ample cabinetry with under-cabinet lighting, and a handy USB outlet for modern convenience. On the main floor, you'll find a private primary suite with an oversized walk-in closet, as well as a secondary bedroom and full bath-ideal for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, offering plenty of space for everyone.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Usb outlet
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• UNDER-CABINET LIGHTING
• USB OUTLET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $369,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $368,907.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $370k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.5% in Weston Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,122 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $335,699 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,907
• List price: $369,990
• Delta: 0.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8435 Red Shiner Way	0.22mi	5/3.0	2,301 (0%)	11mo	$359,900	$156	81
32402 Fly Fish Way	0.15mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,446 (+6%)	4mo	$388,490	$159	72
32316 Bluetipped Dancer Ct	0.36mi	5/3.0	2,365 (+3%)	9mo	$382,600	$162	71
8335 Red Shiner Way	0.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,211 (-4%)	10mo	$359,990	$163	69
7906 Softy Sand Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,365 (+3%)	9mo	$385,375	$163	69
8115 Red Shiner Way	0.18mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,446 (+6%)	6mo	$405,915	$166	69
32210 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,276 (-1%)	9mo	$351,265	$154	61
33026 School Hill Rd	0.56mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,399 (+4%)	0mo	$339,990	$142	60
7919 Wandering Glider Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,102 (-9%)	9mo	$336,170	$160	56
32650 Fly Fish Way	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,637 (+15%)	9mo	$487,990	$185	49
32438 Violet Dancer Ct	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,637 (+15%)	3mo	$550,940	$209	45
32432 Forktail Lake Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,637 (+15%)	7mo	$507,990	$193	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-63,032
• Equity at exit: $55,005

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-84,288
• Equity at exit: $31,896

Cash invested: $103,294 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,534/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,227

Max offer price $368,907

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $230	+0% $103	+5% $-25	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-30	+0% $103	+5% $235	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $196	base $103	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,227
• Closing costs: $11,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8106 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2946	$2,950	$1.00	45d	1	1.33mi
8114 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2960	$3,295	$1.11	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,990 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,990 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,990 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,990 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,990 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,990 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,990 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,990 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,990 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,990 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $369,990 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Step into the spacious comfort of The Wakefield floor plan-a beautifully designed 2-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-bay garage. The open-concept layout offers seamless flow between the great room, kitchen, breakfast nook, and a formal dining room that can easily flex to meet your needs-perfect for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The kitchen is a standout, featuring ample cabinetry with under-cabinet lighting, and a handy USB outlet for modern convenience. On the main floor, you'll find a private primary suite with an oversized walk-in closet, as well as a secondary bedroom and full bath-ideal for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, offering plenty of space for everyone.

16. 2026-02-03
    price $369,990
17. 2025-03-31
    listed $359,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,665
• − Property taxes: −$5,534
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,223
• − Management: −$3,223
• − Depreciation: −$10,732
• Taxable loss: −$4,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $2,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Wakefield floor plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious and well-designed layout with ample room for updates that would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen functionality and aesthetics
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Weston Lakes

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1122
• US rank: #19641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $369,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-31 Listed $359,990 Zillow