43850 20th E #261 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition Est $139k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready mobile home located in the heart of Lancaster! This inviting residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and value--ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for an affordable yet stylish living space. Step inside to discover a bright and open layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating a warm and welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. The home features well-kept finishes throughout, showcasing pride of ownership and true turn-key condition. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and counter space, perfect for preparing meals with ease, while the bedrooms provide comfortable retreats with generous closet space. Enjoy the convenience of a clean, well-maintained interior that's ready for you to move right in without the hassle of updates or repairs. Situated in a well-kept community, this home also offers access to nearby shopping, dining, and commuter routes, making it a practical choice for any lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in ready home at an exceptional value--schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Built 1989
• Listed 60 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease ($900); Community features include curbs, street lighting, and sidewalks; Park name: Rancho Mirage

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Cable available; Telephone available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry on level 1; Living area per assessor's data; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Covered patio/deck; Deck; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main floor; All bedrooms on the ground/main floor; Primary suite with primary bathroom
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower-in-tub in bathroom(s)
• Interior features: Crown moldings; Ceiling fan; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Elementary (644 students, 94% FRL); Gifford C. Cole Middle (703 students, 92% FRL); Eastside High (2,650 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1178 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.27%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,200
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43850 E 20th St E #208	0.00mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	10mo	$139,000	$145	87
2330 E Avenue J8 Spc 95	0.25mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	20mo	$163,000	$170	72
44122 20th St #52	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (+4%)	11mo	$110,000	$110	64
2330 E Avenue J8 #24	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	14mo	$170,000	$161	60
43850 20th St E #170	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	22mo	$149,000	$135	57
43850 20th St E #183	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	16mo	$156,000	$142	57
2330 E Ave J8 #237	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	24mo	$175,000	$162	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $43,839
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $104,153
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1178
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $383/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $1,122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,195	-5% $1,158	+0% $1,122	+5% $1,085	+10% $1,049
Rent	-10% $934	-5% $1,028	+0% $1,122	+5% $1,216	+10% $1,310
Rate	-1.0pp $1,187	-0.5pp $1,155	base $1,122	+0.5pp $1,089	+1.0pp $1,055

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43942 18th St E Unit 3 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	0d	1	0.26mi
43942 18th St E Unit 3 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	11d	1	0.26mi
43833 Serenity Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,470	$2.29	0d	1	0.37mi
43833 Serenity Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,470	$2.29	11d	1	0.37mi
44236 20th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,712	$1.90	0d	1	0.49mi
1743 , CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,134	$2.28	0d	17	0.57mi
1827 East Avenue J Unit 2 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	18d	1	0.73mi
44436 15th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,024	$1.92	0d	1	0.91mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	23d	1	0.94mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	3d	1	0.94mi
1628 Cactus Dr Apt B Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,999	$2.00	0d	1	0.98mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,150	$2.02	25d	1	1.09mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,050	$1.93	0d	1	1.09mi
43711 Challenger Way Unit 3 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$2,100	$2.12	4d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $129,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $165,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1197 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready mobile home located in the heart of Lancaster! This inviting residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and value--ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for an affordable yet stylish living space. Step inside to discover a bright and open layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating a warm and welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. The home features well-kept finishes throughout, showcasing pride of ownership and true turn-key condition. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and counter space, perfect for preparing meals with ease, while the bedrooms provide comfortable retreats with generous closet space. Enjoy the convenience of a clean, well-maintained interior that's ready for you to move right in without the hassle of updates or repairs. Situated in a well-kept community, this home also offers access to nearby shopping, dining, and commuter routes, making it a practical choice for any lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in ready home at an exceptional value--schedule your private showing today!

17. 2026-04-22
    listed $165,000 Active 1197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1197 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready mobile home located in the heart of Lancaster! This inviting residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and value--ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for an affordable yet stylish living space. Step inside to discover a bright and open layout with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating a warm and welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. The home features well-kept finishes throughout, showcasing pride of ownership and true turn-key condition. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and counter space, perfect for preparing meals with ease, while the bedrooms provide comfortable retreats with generous closet space. Enjoy the convenience of a clean, well-maintained interior that's ready for you to move right in without the hassle of updates or repairs. Situated in a well-kept community, this home also offers access to nearby shopping, dining, and commuter routes, making it a practical choice for any lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in ready home at an exceptional value--schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 156.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$383
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,290
• − Management: −$2,290
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $12,034
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,888
• After-tax cash flow: $10,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Lancaster offers a good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's an ideal choice for those seeking a stylish and affordable living space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern features

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern features ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $165,000 AVMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $165,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $383 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.