1211 Paintbrush Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$337,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,321 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,800 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $332k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21217982 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The strength of the Oak II lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. You turned one of the upstairs bedrooms into the ultimate gaming room. Don't let it go to waste. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gaming room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• FLEX ROOM
• GAMING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-147/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,950 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,591
• List price: $337,990
• Delta: 1.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1211 Paintbrush Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,321 (0%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	99
873 River Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,311 (-0%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	97
1216 Bellflower Rd	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+0%)	2mo	$334,990	$144	97
865 River Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-11%)	0mo	$317,990	$154	80
880 Sunflower Rd	0.04mi	4/3.5	2,536 (+9%)	2mo	$354,990	$140	77
811 River Sky Rd	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,357 (+2%)	1mo	$449,900	$191	68
685 Sierra Rdg	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,131 (-8%)	1mo	$349,490	$164	59
817 Stone Grove Rd	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,388 (+3%)	1mo	$449,000	$188	58
525 Epiphany Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,133 (-8%)	1mo	$321,990	$151	56
953 Dahlia Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,071 (-11%)	1mo	$314,990	$152	55
412 Epiphany Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+9%)	1mo	$389,990	$154	52
1719 Hillside Stroll Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,574 (+11%)	1mo	$494,900	$192	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-55,472
• Equity at exit: $50,395

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-48,991
• Equity at exit: $29,223

Cash invested: $94,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,772
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,025

Max offer price $336,215

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,498
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
876 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2321	$3,550	$1.53	1d	1	0.05mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	5d	1	0.06mi
888 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2071	$3,550	$1.71	1d	1	0.06mi
1008 Eagle Run Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	3060	$3,700	$1.21	12d	1	0.31mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	43d	1	0.35mi
641 Poppy Ln Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	3100	$3,800	$1.23	43d	1	0.40mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$3,600	$1.43	43d	1	0.41mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	12d	1	0.47mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	43d	1	0.48mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	43d	1	0.53mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.54mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	0.55mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	7d	1	0.56mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	7d	1	0.56mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.57mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	15d	1	0.58mi
637 Sierra Rdg Lavon, TX	5.0	4.0	2937	$3,950	$1.34	43d	1	0.58mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	6d	1	0.59mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	7d	1	0.60mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	43d	1	0.62mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	43d	1	0.63mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	43d	1	0.67mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.69mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	12d	1	0.70mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	2d	1	0.71mi
830 Oakhurst Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	24d	1	0.75mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	43d	1	0.77mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	24d	1	0.80mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	43d	1	0.82mi
1066 Carpenter Ct Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	43d	1	1.11mi
144 Millwood Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	2700	$2,600	$0.96	43d	1	1.32mi
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	24d	1	1.34mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	43d	1	1.35mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	43d	1	1.37mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	3d	1	1.41mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	24d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   price $337,990 691-char remark

   Show marketing remark (691 chars)

   MLS# 21217982 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The strength of the Oak II lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. You turned one of the upstairs bedrooms into the ultimate gaming room. Don't let it go to waste. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

2. 2026-03-24
   listed $336,990 Active 691-char remark

   Show marketing remark (691 chars)

   MLS# 21217982 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The strength of the Oak II lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. You turned one of the upstairs bedrooms into the ultimate gaming room. Don't let it go to waste. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,889
• − Management: −$2,889
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,832
• Taxable loss: −$5,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,401
• After-tax cash flow: $1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a high ROI with minimal updates needed to enhance its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $337,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $336,990 NTREIS