6588 Ilex Cir · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$360,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1991

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your private escape in Walden Oaks. Tucked away on a quiet street, this charming lakefront villa invites you to slow down, unwind, and enjoy the very best of the Southwest Florida lifestyle. Designed with comfort in mind, the spacious split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy for both owners and guests, while soaring volume ceilings create an airy, open feel throughout. Step outside to the screened lanai to take in panoramic lake views, peaceful breezes, and stunning sunsets—the perfect setting for quiet mornings or evening entertaining. Walden Oaks is highly desired for its low HOA fees and lush, park-like grounds. Residents enjoy winding brick walking paths, charming wooden

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1991

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Home design: Single family home; 1 story

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Central air conditioning
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,577 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.13%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-983
• Equity at exit: $109,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $39,759
• Equity at exit: $136,412

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6654 Tannin Ln Unit B Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1441	$3,100	$2.15	23d	1	0.16mi
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	23d	1	0.47mi
2602 Fountain View Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$2,277	$2.29	13d	41	0.51mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	23d	1	0.53mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	23d	1	0.54mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.56mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	23d	1	0.56mi
3025 Driftwood Way #3203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$3,900	$3.12	23d	1	0.58mi
3029 Driftwood Way #3303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,000	$3.21	23d	1	0.59mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	13d	1	0.61mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	13d	1	0.63mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	13d	1	0.63mi
3037 Driftwood Way #3505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.64mi
2277 Arbour Walk Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$2,540	$2.71	13d	25	0.65mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	13d	1	0.66mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	13d	1	0.66mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	13d	1	0.66mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	13d	1	0.68mi
2226 Arbour Walk Cir #1913 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	740	$1,475	$1.99	23d	1	0.71mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	13d	1	0.75mi
2118 Arbour Walk Cir Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	23d	1	0.84mi
3304 Lisa Ln Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1272	$2,350	$1.85	13d	1	0.86mi
2130 Arbour Walk Cir #2724 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,800	$1.76	23d	1	0.87mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	23d	1	0.89mi
7287 Mill Pond Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$3,800	$2.80	23d	1	0.90mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	13d	1	0.91mi
3268 Amanda Ln #3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,350	$1.64	13d	1	0.95mi
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	23d	1	0.96mi
3250 Cypress Glen Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1242	$3,300	$2.66	21d	3	0.99mi
3250 Cypress Glen Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1191	$3,488	$2.93	23d	2	0.99mi
2070 Arbour Walk Cir #3214 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	760	$1,600	$2.11	21d	1	0.99mi
2058 Arbour Walk Cir #3322 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$2,000	$2.18	23d	1	1.00mi
2460 Old Groves Rd Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,400	$1.96	13d	1	1.01mi
5301 Summerwind Dr Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,864	$2.23	13d	12	1.02mi
3225 Cypress Glen Way #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1191	$2,900	$2.43	23d	1	1.02mi
3255 Tamara Dr #4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,500	$1.74	13d	1	1.04mi
7518 Silver Trumpet Ln Unit Q102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	13d	1	1.05mi
2585 Old Groves Rd Unit L203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1448	$5,500	$3.80	13d	1	1.09mi
7546 Mill Pond Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$6,500	$4.73	23d	1	1.11mi
3320 Bermuda Isle Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$2,390	$2.11	13d	45	1.17mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $360,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,241
• − Management: −$3,241
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$3,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$915
• After-tax cash flow: $3,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B