3596 Birdland Ave · Sacramento, CA 95835

$575,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2023 3,550 sqft lot $296/sqft · 9% below area Est $629k · 9% under $97/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning like-new Lennar home in the desirable Northlake community of Natomas! Built in 2023, this 1,945 sq ft residence offers 3 upstairs bedrooms including a luxurious master suite, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and a 2-car garage. Downstairs, the open-concept design features a bright great room that flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen, complete with stone counters, upgraded marble tile flooring, and glamorous designer light fixtures. A convenient half bathroom is tucked away on the main level. Upstairs, the versatile loft provides additional living space, perfect for a home office, playroom, or media room. The primary suite boasts an oversized walk-in closet, while

Key facts

• Leased solar
• Modern kitchen
• Corner lot

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• LEASED SOLAR
• CORNER LOT
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (48.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (42.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (48.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($523k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,400 (48.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.74%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $628,536
• List price: $575,000
• Delta: -8.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3428 Shaker Way	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,917 (-1%)	1mo	$590,905	$308	80
3419 Mas Amilos Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,021 (+4%)	0mo	$542,000	$268	75
6 Sea Hawk Pl	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,962 (+1%)	3mo	$545,000	$278	70
3345 La Cadena Way	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (-2%)	2mo	$565,000	$297	68
5609 Gambrel Way	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,815 (-7%)	3mo	$525,000	$289	67
17 Narwal Pl	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,992 (+2%)	3mo	$490,440	$246	65
5649 Harveston Way	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,223 (+14%)	2mo	$655,000	$295	64
1472 Jeannie Way	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,034 (+5%)	0mo	$600,000	$295	60
3930 Waterleaf Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,150 (+10%)	2mo	$767,000	$357	54
5913 Vantage St	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,150 (+10%)	2mo	$665,000	$309	48
8150 Gardini Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,175 (+12%)	2mo	$787,515	$362	47
180 Caravaggio Cir	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,776 (-9%)	1mo	$485,000	$273	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $176,675
• Equity at exit: $484,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $582,399
• Equity at exit: $1,010,072

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$684 /mo · $8,202/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $-1,566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,267

Max offer price $298,400

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,240	-5% $-1,403	+0% $-1,566	+5% $-1,729	+10% $-1,891
Rent	-10% $-1,825	-5% $-1,696	+0% $-1,566	+5% $-1,436	+10% $-1,306
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,276	-0.5pp $-1,420	base $-1,566	+0.5pp $-1,715	+1.0pp $-1,866

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	44d	1	0.08mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	11d	1	0.32mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	13d	1	0.37mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	4d	1	0.38mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	2d	1	0.46mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	24d	2	0.55mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	17d	3	0.55mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	2d	1	0.62mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	44d	1	0.66mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	44d	1	0.75mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	4d	1	0.76mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	2d	1	0.77mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	2d	1	0.78mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	4d	1	0.84mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	2d	1	0.91mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	44d	1	1.30mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	4d	1	1.31mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	44d	2	1.31mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	8d	1	1.33mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $575,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $575,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $575,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $575,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $575,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $575,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $575,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2022-03-11
    soldstatus $27,710,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,202 · $684/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,202 · $684/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$8,202
• − Insurance: −$4,378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,153
• − Management: −$3,153
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$29,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2022-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $27,710,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+41.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,202 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.