1171 Heart Lake Rd · New Milford, PA 18801

$320,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Other · 299 Days on market

Built 1999 0.72 ac lot $167/sqft · 36% below area Est $499k · 36% under · waterfront ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Raised Ranch with In-Law Suite on . 72 acre overlooking Heart Lake. 250ft of road frontage and deeded Lake access. Wooded area surrounds the property owned by the Lake Assoc. Club house is right next door plus large Lake Association grounds across road with keyed access to boat launch & activity grounds for ''Members Only''. Walking paths surround this property and are maintained by association members. Home was built in 1999 with lower-level In-Law suite. Lovely entrance room giving access to 2nd floor & centrally located pellet stove for added warmth in the winter months. Two bedrooms with closets, oversized living rm with a dining area, fully appl kit plus laundry room & 3/4 bath. 2nd level has two oversized bedrooms with closets, full bath. 6x12 walk-in pantry adjacent to the fully appl. kit with cherry cabinets & breakfast counter opening up to dining area and living room. Access door to 8x24 covered porch with full views of the Lake. Public sewer & private well. Lots of area to build a garage. Two large sheds for storage. Heart Lake is a motor boat Lake with Association rules. Yearly costs are $250.00. Oil and gas rights are negotiable. Lots of time to enjoy the summer and year around living. Many events are planned through the season. Spectrum cable TV & Internet available.

Key facts

• In-law suite
• Keyed access
• Boat launch

Tags

• IN-LAW SUITE
• DEEDED LAKE ACCESS
• WOODED AREA
• KEYED ACCESS
• BOAT LAUNCH
• WALKING PATHS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-705 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (46.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,332 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montrose Area SD (rural): math 35% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lathrop Street El Sch (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #737 of 1,518 statewide, top 52%, 397 students, 53% FRL); Montrose Area Jshs (math 36% / reading 52%, grade F, #209 of 437 statewide, top 48%, 562 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Susquehanna County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Susquehanna County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $172,900 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.44%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,081
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -35.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,168
• Equity at exit: $146,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $45,289
• Equity at exit: $227,322

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18801

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,115/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,622

Max offer price $195,435

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-524	-5% $-615	+0% $-705	+5% $-796	+10% $-886
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-773	+0% $-705	+5% $-637	+10% $-569
Rate	-1.0pp $-544	-0.5pp $-624	base $-705	+0.5pp $-788	+1.0pp $-872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $320,000 Active 297 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,000 Active 287 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 279 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 278 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 277 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    status Active 1346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1346 chars)

    Spacious Raised Ranch with In-Law Suite on . 72 acre overlooking Heart Lake. 250ft of road frontage and deeded Lake access. Wooded area surrounds the property owned by the Lake Assoc. Club house is right next door plus large Lake Association grounds across road with keyed access to boat launch & activity grounds for ''Members Only''. Walking paths surround this property and are maintained by association members. Home was built in 1999 with lower-level In-Law suite. Lovely entrance room giving access to 2nd floor & centrally located pellet stove for added warmth in the winter months. Two bedrooms with closets, oversized living rm with a dining area, fully appl kit plus laundry room & 3/4 bath. 2nd level has two oversized bedrooms with closets, full bath. 6x12 walk-in pantry adjacent to the fully appl. kit with cherry cabinets & breakfast counter opening up to dining area and living room. Access door to 8x24 covered porch with full views of the Lake. Public sewer & private well. Lots of area to build a garage. Two large sheds for storage. Heart Lake is a motor boat Lake with Association rules. Yearly costs are $250.00. Oil and gas rights are negotiable. Lots of time to enjoy the summer and year around living. Many events are planned through the season. Spectrum cable TV & Internet available.

20. 2026-03-13
    price $320,000 1346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1346 chars)

    Spacious Raised Ranch with In-Law Suite on . 72 acre overlooking Heart Lake. 250ft of road frontage and deeded Lake access. Wooded area surrounds the property owned by the Lake Assoc. Club house is right next door plus large Lake Association grounds across road with keyed access to boat launch & activity grounds for ''Members Only''. Walking paths surround this property and are maintained by association members. Home was built in 1999 with lower-level In-Law suite. Lovely entrance room giving access to 2nd floor & centrally located pellet stove for added warmth in the winter months. Two bedrooms with closets, oversized living rm with a dining area, fully appl kit plus laundry room & 3/4 bath. 2nd level has two oversized bedrooms with closets, full bath. 6x12 walk-in pantry adjacent to the fully appl. kit with cherry cabinets & breakfast counter opening up to dining area and living room. Access door to 8x24 covered porch with full views of the Lake. Public sewer & private well. Lots of area to build a garage. Two large sheds for storage. Heart Lake is a motor boat Lake with Association rules. Yearly costs are $250.00. Oil and gas rights are negotiable. Lots of time to enjoy the summer and year around living. Many events are planned through the season. Spectrum cable TV & Internet available.

21. 2025-08-18
    listed $330,000 Active 1346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1346 chars)

    Spacious Raised Ranch with In-Law Suite on . 72 acre overlooking Heart Lake. 250ft of road frontage and deeded Lake access. Wooded area surrounds the property owned by the Lake Assoc. Club house is right next door plus large Lake Association grounds across road with keyed access to boat launch & activity grounds for ''Members Only''. Walking paths surround this property and are maintained by association members. Home was built in 1999 with lower-level In-Law suite. Lovely entrance room giving access to 2nd floor & centrally located pellet stove for added warmth in the winter months. Two bedrooms with closets, oversized living rm with a dining area, fully appl kit plus laundry room & 3/4 bath. 2nd level has two oversized bedrooms with closets, full bath. 6x12 walk-in pantry adjacent to the fully appl. kit with cherry cabinets & breakfast counter opening up to dining area and living room. Access door to 8x24 covered porch with full views of the Lake. Public sewer & private well. Lots of area to build a garage. Two large sheds for storage. Heart Lake is a motor boat Lake with Association rules. Yearly costs are $250.00. Oil and gas rights are negotiable. Lots of time to enjoy the summer and year around living. Many events are planned through the season. Spectrum cable TV & Internet available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,115 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,086 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: +$970/yr (+$81/mo · 31.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$3,115
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$14,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,485
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montrose Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215810
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,819
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3569
• State rank: #214 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Milford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1332
• US rank: #16458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,838

Population outlook (Susquehanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,552 people
• By 2030: 35,270 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 30,663 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,492 · -29.5%
• By 2075: 19,658 · -47.7%
• By 2100: 15,179 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Susquehanna

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.2% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 133.3042
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $320,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-18 Listed $330,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,115 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.