3147 St Rt 849 W · Lowes, KY 42069

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 1935 Fair condition 2.00 ac lot ↓ 38% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom brick home nestled on approximately 2 acres in the peaceful countryside of Melber; just a short drive to Paducah. Enjoy quiet mornings on the inviting covered front porch, offering scenic views and room to breathe while taking in the surrounding countryside . . The home features a durable metal roof and a warm, welcoming feel throughout, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space, privacy, and a relaxed country lifestyle. This property offers the perfect blend of rural privacy, usable land, and convenient access to modern amenities - making it highly desirable for buyers searching for homes with acreage in Western Kentucky, country homes near Paducah, or investment property with land. This property delivers wide-open space ideal for gardening, recreation, or future expansion, while still keeping you connected to shopping, dining, and healthcare in nearby Mayfield and the greater McCracken/Graves County area.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• SCENIC VIEWS
• APPROXIMATELY 2 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#506 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Graves County (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #10 of 165 in KY (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Graves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Graves County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $43,946
• Equity at exit: $87,046

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $125,548
• Equity at exit: $149,579

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42069

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $194	+0% $140	+5% $87	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $80	+0% $140	+5% $201	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $180	base $140	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $155,000 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom brick home nestled on approximately 2 acres in the peaceful countryside of Melber; just a short drive to Paducah. Enjoy quiet mornings on the inviting covered front porch, offering scenic views and room to breathe while taking in the surrounding countryside . . The home features a durable metal roof and a warm, welcoming feel throughout, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space, privacy, and a relaxed country lifestyle. This property offers the perfect blend of rural privacy, usable land, and convenient access to modern amenities - making it highly desirable for buyers searching for homes with acreage in Western Kentucky, country homes near Paducah, or investment property with land. This property delivers wide-open space ideal for gardening, recreation, or future expansion, while still keeping you connected to shopping, dining, and healthcare in nearby Mayfield and the greater McCracken/Graves County area.

17. 2026-04-20
    listed $165,000 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this charming 2 bedroom brick home nestled on approximately 2 acres in the peaceful countryside of Melber; just a short drive to Paducah. Enjoy quiet mornings on the inviting covered front porch, offering scenic views and room to breathe while taking in the surrounding countryside . . The home features a durable metal roof and a warm, welcoming feel throughout, making it an ideal retreat for those seeking space, privacy, and a relaxed country lifestyle. This property offers the perfect blend of rural privacy, usable land, and convenient access to modern amenities - making it highly desirable for buyers searching for homes with acreage in Western Kentucky, country homes near Paducah, or investment property with land. This property delivers wide-open space ideal for gardening, recreation, or future expansion, while still keeping you connected to shopping, dining, and healthcare in nearby Mayfield and the greater McCracken/Graves County area.

18. 2025-12-04
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Take a look at this charming brick home in Graves County, KY featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, with a bonus unfinished attic space 418 sq ft that could easily be converted into additional living area! The home offers newer LVP flooring throughout, solid oak kitchen cabinetry, and a spacious family room. Exterior features include a 2-car garage, carport and approximately 11 acres of mostly tillable land with row crop income. Conveniently located between Mayfield and Paducah, this property offers peaceful country living with easy access to town! Don’t let it get away!

19. 2025-10-26
    listed $249,500 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Take a look at this charming brick home in Graves County, KY featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, with a bonus unfinished attic space 418 sq ft that could easily be converted into additional living area! The home offers newer LVP flooring throughout, solid oak kitchen cabinetry, and a spacious family room. Exterior features include a 2-car garage, carport and approximately 11 acres of mostly tillable land with row crop income. Conveniently located between Mayfield and Paducah, this property offers peaceful country living with easy access to town! Don’t let it get away!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$200
• After-tax cash flow: $1,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming 2-bedroom brick home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key updates include painting interior walls and replacing kitchen countertops.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Minor porch flooring — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
porch flooring · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graves County
• NCES district ID: 2102280
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 41.74/100
• National rank: #3400
• State rank: #10 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lowes

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #25700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 64
• Population (ZIP): 1,114

Population outlook (Graves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,916 people
• By 2030: 36,587 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 35,580 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 33,906 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 28,957 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 21,552 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Graves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.92%
• Current HPI: 243.5121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-37.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $155,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Sold (MLS) $200,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listed $249,500 WKRMLS